I don't think exit polls are ever a perfect guide to why people voted the way they did, but in this case I think they've probably got the top issues right. I think you can group it into four basic categories: 

There are lots of reasons to think the war in Iran played a role here. For one thing, Trump initially promised this would be a brief diversion before he would turn his attention to Cuba. But that was way back in March and April. What actually happened is that Trump kept holding off on further bombing runs and instead set up a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This has devastated Iran's already ailing economy, but at a significant cost to the United States, which is now forced to ferry ships through the Strait to keep it open.

For many on the Right who voted for Trump, entering a war with Iran was seen as a betrayal of principles. But I think the bigger issue for most people was simply that gas prices were high. 

Gas prices hit a record high for an election day yesterday, and diesel prices are also in record territory. All of this is felt by most people on a weekly basis and it contributes to broader inflation. Exit polls seem to agree with this view. People didn't like the war because it was costing them money.

Trump occasionally made the case that the war was necessary because Iran was seeking the bomb, but that didn't ever seem to resonate as much as gas prices did. As Scott Jennings put it, gas prices are America's scoreboard. If the prices are going up, people feel like the country is going down.

Recommended
All Eyes Are on DeSantis David Strom Vance Comes Out Swinging: End the War, Abandon Israel David Strom

Obviously, all of that ties in directly to concerns about inflation and affordability. Here's an NBC clip in which people directly tied gas prices to inflation in other areas. It made many people feel like they were being squeezed into difficult choices.

Here's another clip focused on the inflation piece of this. CBS correctly notes that this is one of the major issues (along with the border) that Trump won on in 2024. 

Biden's inflation record was historically awful. Trump seemed to be turning that around but the war with Iran caused a reversal. By September, inflation was heading back up.

US inflation rose by more than expected in the year to September, according to official figures, in the final data release before the midterm elections next month.

The pace of price rises increased to 3.7%, up from 3.4% in the 12 months to August.

Inflation was above forecasts, driven by higher gasoline prices which have spiked following disruption to Middle East energy supplies due to the US-Israel conflict with Iran.

The war in Iran was part of this but it wasn't the only part. Tariffs also played a role.

While Trump argued the tariffs would increase America's tax earnings, boost manufacturing and encourage people to buy US-made goods, the higher import taxes have also had an impact on inflation, according to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Higher tariffs - which are levies that businesses pay on the goods they import - directly raise prices for US companies unless the overseas firms they are buying from lower prices to absorb some of the cost.

In response to the higher tariffs introduced by the president, the New York Fed found exporters reduced prices very little, meaning US-based businesses ended up absorbing nearly 90% of the cost of the added tax.

One way to think about all of this is that Trump was making several long-term bets which he felt were in America's best interest. The war with Iran was about keeping America safe from a nuclear armed Iran. The tariffs were about trying to bring some manufacturing home and jumpstart industry here. The problem with both things is that they take a long time, and you don't necessarily see the positive outcome for years after you feel the immediate pain of higher prices.

Another thing exit polls seem to point to is disapproval of ICE and what some people saw as overzealous enforcement. However, it has to be said that this was overshadowed by the economic concerns.

President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown faced widespread public opposition at the ballot box, but that anger did not translate into immigration becoming the defining issue of the election.

More than half of voters said the administration’s enforcement actions had gone too far, and six in 10 disapproved of ICE’s performance. Yet just 14 percent named immigration as the country’s most important issue, far behind the economy and concerns about democracy, according to exit polls. The economy came first, at 39 percent, followed by the state of democracy at 32 percent. Healthcare, foreign policy, and crime ranked further behind.

The exit poll found 57 percent believed the administration’s immigration enforcement had gone too far, while 20 percent said it had not gone far enough and 22 percent considered it about right. Sixty percent disapproved of the way ICE was handling its job, compared with 40 percent who approved.

My own take is that this basically comes down to two shootings which happened early this year. We covered those endlessly here because they were all the media would talk about for weeks. I think that left a mark. It didn't hurt Trump with his supporters, but it probably did hurt him with women and younger people, both of whom moved left this election. People really bought into the idea that ICE was marching around and summarily executing people or that they were arresting them at random. For the most part that's not what actually happened but this is one place where the media were in lockstep and I think they convinced a lot of people Trump had gone too far.

Finally, there's a government corruption piece of this. This may have been the top issue:

It's not clear exactly what this even means, but I think this is basically the leftovers from the 2024 effort to convince voters Trump would end democracy. That didn't sell two years ago but they didn't really give up on it so much as reframe it.

Voters are now more concerned about government corruption than any other issue, including high grocery and gas prices, according to the final CNBC All-America Economic Survey before the Nov. 3 midterm election.

The finding follows a monthslong messaging effort by Democrats to link widespread economic dissatisfaction with what they allege is rampant corruption by President Donald Trump and his Republican allies...

A Fox News poll published last week found 60% of registered voters are extremely concerned about government corruption, surpassing concerns about inflation and high prices. A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll released Sunday found some two-thirds of respondents think Trump is using the presidency to enrich himself, up 10 percentage points since September 2025. Gallup recently found perceptions of government corruption in the U.S. have hit multi-decade highs. And an August poll from Reuters/Ipsos found nearly 7 in 10 Americans believe Trump’s businesses influence his presidential decisions.

It's hard to say what specific thing this was about, but probably some of the targeting of Trump's political enemies by the DOJ didn't help, i.e. Letitia James, James Comey, Ilhan Omar, Marc Elias, etc. Trump may believe each of these people is guilty of actual crimes but the track record isn't good so far and the efforts look political. At best, this was an easy issue for Democrats to latch onto to make their case.

So that's a bit of what the exit polls said last night. I think the midterms were always going to be rough for Republicans this year, certainly in the House. The combination of the war in Iran, high gas prices, creeping inflation caused by the war and tariffs, concern about ICE overreach with some segments of the electorate, and the perceived corruption issues — these are the major reasons this turned into a historic blowout. But of those, I think the old saw remains true: It's the economy that mattered most.