I mentioned this last night in the live feed. California's wealth tax aka the billionaire tax appears to be going down to defeat. I say "appears to be" because in California they have two solid weeks to count votes. But here's where things stand as of this morning.

Prop. 40 is the billionaire tax and as of now the No vote is winning by more than 850,000 votes. The AP estimates that 60 percent of the vote is in, so the final tally will likely be a lot higher. However, there's no real reason to think that vote will shift things in favor of the tax. 

Looking at the county-by-county breakdown, you can see that 70 percent of the vote is counted in Los Angeles, the largest single county in the state. And while LA did vote yes on the tax, it did so pretty narrowly, 51-49. So there may be another 900,000 votes yet to be counted there, but with that narrow gap, it's not going to be enough to make up the statewide gap. Of course it's possible that the uncounted votes are very different from the counted ones but they shouldn't be that different.

Meanwhile, the next four counties in terms of total vote count, were all voting no and they also have about a third of the vote outstanding. Added together, they should offset whatever appears in LA County, barring shenanigans. Orange County was running 62-38 against the tax with 64 percent of the vote counted.

The other good news is that Prop. 42 seems headed for passage by a solid margin. Prop. 42 was essentially a spoiler initiative paid for by Sergey Brin's group Building a Better California. It says the state can't tax wealth at all and also outlaws retroactive taxes like Prop. 40.

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Proposition 42 would prohibit taxes enacted by law or constitutional amendment on or after January 1, 2026, on the ownership or control of retirement holdings, individually-owned assets, and other forms of personal savings, whether held directly or indirectly. The initiative would also prohibit retroactive taxes that authorize a tax on conduct, activities, or status that occurred or was present prior to the effective date of the state law or constitution.

Because all of that directly conflicts with the text of Prop. 40 (the wealth tax) only the one that gets the most votes counts, even if they both get over the 50 percent threshold. In other words, if Prop. 42 passes with more votes than Prop. 40, then Prop. 40 is invalid.

Right now, with 59 percent of the vote counted, Prop. 42 is winning by about 9 percent. So even if you imagine a scenario in which, say, LA County suddenly discovers a cache of votes that get Prop 40 over the 50 percent threshold for passage, Prop. 42 would still have more votes. So for this to work, you would also need a sudden cache of votes to make Prop. 42 fail. Never say never in California but I don't think that's very likely to happen.

Numbers aside, there are two big points to make here. One, this was always about getting the camel's nose into the tent. Progressives figured if they could pass it here, it could go national. The fact that it looks destined to lose handily should make a lot of Democrats, even some of the DSA types, reconsider the viability. 

Remember when we used to hear about Medicare for All, seemingly all the time? That mostly stopped after it failed to pass in California. If it can't pass here, it can't pass anywhere.

Two, I think there's a real underlying message here about DSA overreach. In the same election where Democrats took back the House and the Senate and knocked out a bunch of GOP governors, this extreme proposal by the far left failed. The DSA had a good night overall and may soon be governing both of America's largest cities if Nithya Raman holds on to her lead in LA, but their big swing for the fences on taxes is looking dead for good. In fact, by overreaching, they seem to have helped pass Prop. 42 which will make it much harder to ever try this again.

This is likely what the DSA will do everywhere they win. They'll be popular for a moment among 20-somethings who don't know any better, but their appeal is still limited to deep blue cities. Outside of those places, they will get no traction. And even in those places, people will eventually discover that they can't deliver on all their fabulous promises and tire of them.

The Left had a good night last night, but this too shall pass. Count on it.