Democrats are getting excited about the possibility of retaking Congress next year now that President Trump's approval rating has slipped a bit. The fact that their own approval rating has also slipped ought to concern them but for the moment they seem intent on looking for a silver lining. But as Politico pointed out a few weeks ago, they are facing a touch map in the Senate next year.
“It’s no secret that we face a tough map,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) said, though he remained upbeat: “I don’t think you can read into losing one senator in a state where I think we will do very, very well.”...
Democrats’ biggest challenge was always going to be a limited number of pick-up opportunities as they try to claw their way back to power: Sens. Susan Collins’ and Thom Tillis’ seats in Maine and North Carolina, respectively, are their best options. And, critically, winning both wouldn’t win back control of the Senate on their own — and neither are slam dunks for Democrats.
It all amounts to a reality check for the embattled party, even with the next election more than a year and a half away.
It doesn't help that four Democratic Senators have announced their retirement so far: Gary Peters of Michigan, Tina Smith of Minnesota, Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire and, most recently, Dick Durbin of Illinois. But, as I said, despite all of that Democrats are trying to remain hopeful.
Democrats have grown more bullish about their midterm prospects as President Trump’s approval rating has sagged. “We are going to be in the majority in 2027,” Mr. Schumer, the minority leader from New York, boldly predicted last month.
But Democrats also confront the brutal reality of a map where all but two of the 22 Republican seats up for election are in states that Mr. Trump carried by at least 10 percentage points in 2024.
The two seats Democrats are hoping to flip are Susan Collins seat in Maine and Thom Tillis seat in North Carolina. But even if they somehow win both of those, it wouldn't be enough to win control of the chamber. To do that they'd also need to win races in Ohio and Iowa. At least those are the next most competitive.
After that we're back to another fairy tale about Democrats claiming a seat in Texas or something equally unlikely. Are you ready for the return of Beto O'Rourke? He's tan, rested and furry.
“There is a civil war rolling through the Texas Republican Party right now,” said former Representative Beto O’Rourke, a Democrat who broke fund-raising records during his unsuccessful Senate bid in 2018. He said in an interview that he would consider running again if it were “where I am most useful.”
Meanwhile Democrats have seats of their own to worry about.
Retirements by the party’s senators have opened seats in Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire, and Senator Jon Ossoff is seeking re-election in Georgia. Republicans had hoped that Gov. Brian Kemp would challenge him, but Mr. Kemp said on Monday that he would not run.
Alex Latcham, the executive director of the leading Senate Republican super PAC, is confident of keeping the majority.
“Democrats are delusional,” he said. “We welcome their effort to waste resources in states they’re never going to win. We’re going to beat the hell out of them.”
It's an uphill battle next year, but even if they can claim 1 or 2 seats, that would put them in a better position in the 2028 Senate race where the map is more favorable to them than the one next year.
