President Trump said earlier today that tariffs on Mexico (plus China and Canada) would finally take effect on March 4, which is next Tuesday. His reason? Too many illegal drugs are still coming across the border.

Tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico will go into effect on March 4 “as scheduled,” President Trump said on Thursday morning, claiming that those countries were still not doing enough to stop the flow of drugs into the United States...

“Drugs are still pouring into our Country from Mexico and Canada at very high and unacceptable levels,” he said. “A large percentage of these Drugs, much of them in the form of Fentanyl, are made in, and supplied by, China.” He added that the levies were necessary until the flow of drugs “stops, or is seriously limited.”

But there's more to this story happening right now. The Trump administration has already declared Mexican drug cartels terrorist groups and there have been reports that US reaper drones have been spying on cartel activities.

The CIA under President Donald Trump has been covertly flying MQ-9 Reaper drones over Mexico to spy on drug cartels, current and former officials familiar with the matter told CNN, part of Trump’s dramatic reorientation of national security assets to the US southern border...

The MQ-9 drones used for the missions are not currently armed. But they can be equipped with payloads to carry out precision strikes. The US regularly uses them to target suspected terrorists in Syria, Iraq and Somalia.

Behind the scenes, there is an ongoing debate within the administration between those who want to launch military strikes on the cartels inside Mexico and those who want to cooperate more closely with the Mexican government to get them under control. Mexican officials arrived in Washington today to discuss a security agreement with the US.

On one side, several people familiar with the matter say, some U.S. officials are advocating for unilateral military action against cartel figures and infrastructure to stem the flow of drugs across the border. On the other side, those people say, some officials are arguing for increased partnership with the Mexican government to ensure, among other things, continued cooperation on the issue of migration.

Amid this split, a high-level delegation from Mexico arrived in Washington on Thursday and met with senior U.S. officials to hammer out a security agreement, a draft of which was crafted last week and will likely anchor the talks.

In what could be seen as a gesture of goodwill, Mexico handed over about 30 cartel figures to the US for prosecution.

The Mexican government on Thursday began sending to the United States nearly 30 top cartel operatives wanted by the American authorities, including one notorious drug lord that U.S. officials had been seeking to bring to justice for 40 years, according to a statement by the Mexican government.

The handover of so many significant cartel figures to the United States at once was one of the most important efforts by Mexico in the modern history of the drug war to send traffickers across the border to face charges in American federal courts...

In recent weeks, the Trump administration has placed enormous diplomatic and economic pressure on President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, threatening to impose tariffs on her country and suggesting that it might take military action against drug lords and cartel infrastructure within her nation’s borders.

Some of the guys being handed over are pretty significant figures.

The group includes Rafael Caro Quintero, a veteran cartel boss convicted of murdering a U.S. anti-narcotics agent in 1985, five sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

It also includes newer cartel figures like Antonio Oseguera Cervantes, brother of Mexico's most-wanted drug lord, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, who leads the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel, sources said...

Some analysts see the extraditions as a gift to Trump ahead of high-stakes trade talks.

So to sum this all up, Trump has been squeezing Mexico to control the border and clamp down on drug trafficking. He has threatened significant tariffs which would crush the Mexican economy if imposed. Mexico is hoping to avoid the tariffs and Reaper strikes within their borders and is handing over 29 cartel bigwigs as a gesture to show they mean business and are willing to work with the US.

My guess is that Mexico will agree to whatever security arrangement the White House has in mind and, if that happens, Trump will suspend the tariffs for another 30 days. The continued threat of the tariffs means he can renew those demands every 30 days if necessary. It's a harsh way to negotiate but given that something like 100,000 Americans died from overdoses last year, it seems warranted.

The irony here is that Trump's tough stance could wind up solving a lot of problems for blue city mayors who haven't seemed capable of doing much about the endless flow of fentanyl and other drugs onto their streets. Trump won't get any credit for that of course, not from the mayors and not from the media, but what he's doing seems like a good faith effort to benefit all Americans.