President Trump was not kidding about making efforts to shrink the size of government. Today the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) sent an email to millions of federal employees offering them a choice: Get on board with the Trump administration's new approach or simply send a replay email to OPM containing the word "resign."  The page on OPM's website about this offer is titled "Fork in the Road."

During the first week of his administration, President Trump issued a number of directives concerning the federal workforce. Among those directives, the President required that employees return to in-person work, restored accountability for employees who have policy-making authority, restored accountability for senior career executives, and reformed the federal hiring process to focus on merit. As a result of the above orders, the reform of the federal workforce will be significant.

The reformed federal workforce will be built around four pillars:

1)	Return to Office: The substantial majority of federal employees who have been working remotely since Covid will be required to return to their physical offices five days a week. Going forward, we also expect our physical offices to undergo meaningful consolidation and divestitures, potentially resulting in physical office relocations for a number of federal workers.
2)	Performance culture: The federal workforce should be comprised of the best America has to offer. We will insist on excellence at every level — our performance standards will be updated to reward and promote those that exceed expectations and address in a fair and open way those who do not meet the high standards which the taxpayers of this country have a right to demand.
3)	More streamlined and flexible workforce: While a few agencies and even branches of the military are likely to see increases in the size of their workforce, the majority of federal agencies are likely to be downsized through restructurings, realignments, and reductions in force. These actions are likely to include the use of furloughs and the reclassification to at-will status for a substantial number of federal employees.
4)	Enhanced standards of conduct: The federal workforce should be comprised of employees who are reliable, loyal, trustworthy, and who strive for excellence in their daily work. Employees will be subject to enhanced standards of suitability and conduct as we move forward. Employees who engage in unlawful behavior or other misconduct will be prioritized for appropriate investigation and discipline, including termination.

Each of the pillars outlined above will be pursued in accordance with applicable law, consistent with your agency's policies, and to the extent permitted under relevant collective-bargaining agreements.

And here's the fork in the road.

If you choose to remain in your current position, we thank you for your renewed focus on serving the American people to the best of your abilities and look forward to working together as part of an improved federal workforce. At this time, we cannot give you full assurance regarding the certainty of your position or agency but should your position be eliminated you will be treated with dignity and will be afforded the protections in place for such positions.

If you choose not to continue in your current role in the federal workforce, we thank you for your service to your country and you will be provided with a dignified, fair departure from the federal government utilizing a deferred resignation program. This program begins effective January 28 and is available to all federal employees until February 6. If you resign under this program, you will retain all pay and benefits regardless of your daily workload and will be exempted from all applicable in-person work requirements until September 30, 2025 (or earlier if you choose to accelerate your resignation for any reason). The details of this separation plan can be found below.

Whichever path you choose, we thank you for your service to The United States of America.

On a personal note, this is long, long overdue. I worked for the federal government for 11 years and some of the behavior I saw there was shocking. There were some good people and also some people who could not possibly have held down any non-government job. They took advantage of low expectations to do the bare minimum. Some of these people were barely putting in half a day on their days in the office. I can't imagine what that has become with the advent of working from home.

In any case, the White House says they expect 5-10% of employees to resign.

A senior administration official told NBC News that they expect 5%-10% of the federal workforce to quit, which, they estimate, could lead to around $100 billion in savings.

"American taxpayers pay for the salaries of federal government employees, and therefore deserve employees working on their behalf who actually show up to work in our wonderful federal buildings, also paid for by taxpayers," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. "If they don’t want to work in the office and contribute to making America great again, then they are free to choose a different line of work, and the Trump Administration will provide a very generous payout of 8 months."

There are some federal workers who are not being given an opportunity to accept the offer.

Postal workers, members of the military, immigration officials, certain national security roles that the administration wouldn’t specify and any other role that agencies deem as being necessary will not be able to opt in, the sources said.

The American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) is predicting "chaos" as a result.

“The number of civil servants hasn't meaningfully changed since 1970, but there are more Americans than ever who rely on government services. Purging the federal government of dedicated career civil servants will have vast, unintended consequences that will cause chaos for the Americans who depend on a functioning federal government. This offer should not be viewed as voluntary. Between the flurry of anti-worker executive orders and policies, it is clear that the Trump administration's goal is to turn the federal government into a toxic environment where workers cannot stay even if they want to.”

Again, I've been there and the idea that America will fall apart if 10% of government employees stop coming to work is laughable. Many of the people who will accept this offer should have been on the chopping block long ago and aren't contributing much.

Finally, it's worth noting that this whole approach is very similar to something Elon Musk did after he bought Twitter back in 2022.

On Wednesday, in an email to staff entitled "A Fork in the Road," Musk said Twitter would "need to be extremely hardcore" to succeed. Those who chose to stay should expect long, intense hours of work. Those who left would receive three months' severance pay, he wrote. Employees were required to choose by Thursday afternoon.

Back then, Musk even commission a giant piece of art titled A Fork in the Road. Today he pinned a December tweet about that to the top of his X feed.

Two years ago, I commissioned an art piece: A Fork in the Road.

Had to make sure that civilization took the path most likely to pass the Fermi Great Filters. pic.twitter.com/mYFzdAy6WF

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 7, 2024