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California's High Speed Rail Starts Laying Track (Sort of)

AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, File

Gov. Gavin Newsom held a photo op Monday during which he and other state leaders symbolically put spikes into a piece of the state's high speed rail system. Newsom did his best to paint this as the start of a new day for the project.

In the shadow of a newly built overpass along the rail route on Monday afternoon, California High-Speed Rail Authority CEO Ian Choudri and Gov. Gavin Newsom proclaimed the start of work on the railhead as a milestone for the controversial rail project...

“This damn thing is substantially permanent,” Newsom said of the overall Valley portion of construction from north of Madera to Shafter, the first stages of what is planned as an initial operating segment for the trains between Merced and Bakersfield. “Finally, we’re at the point where we’re going to start laying down this track in the next couple years.”

It sounded good I'm sure, but there are a bunch of problems with this. For one thing, this track isn't part of the actual high speed rail system. It's what is called a railhead, basically a new spur where supplies can be brought in by train for the eventual work of laying track. That work won't start until spring and even then it won't be the actual track a high speed train will run on but a siding.

"Initial track work is estimated to begin by Spring 2025, with installation of mainline turnouts, work that includes laying a siding track, a parallel track that allows BNSF trains to pull off the mainline and out of the way of the work.

"A track and OCS construction contract has not yet been awarded. The Authority will be issuing a request for proposals to procure a contract for Track and Overhead Contact System (OCS) construction, and expects to award a contract by fourth quarter 2025."

Technically it does count as track being laid for this project but again it's not the actual track any high speed train will run on. In fact, no contractors have yet been signed to lay the actual track. We're still many months away from getting to that point and when we finally do it will only be track for a small section of the line in central California.

What's striking about the date Newsom picked for this high speed rail photo op is that it comes 10 years to the day from a very similar photo op held by Gov. Jerry Brown to launch construction on this project. This is from an NPR report published on Jan. 6, 2015:

One of the biggest transportation projects the country has ever seen broke ground Monday in Fresno, Calif. In theory, the much delayed high-speed rail line would allow a trip from Los Angeles to San Francisco in less than three hours, with speeds of over 200 mph...

At the groundbreaking, even Gov. Jerry Brown admitted he had "some doubts about this project," and wondered, "Where the hell are we going to get the rest of the money?" But, he told those in the audience: "Don't worry about it. We're going to get it." The state is relying on private investment, and on revenue from state greenhouse-gas fees, to fill the gap.

Ten years have passed and we've finally started on a spur that will allow construction of a siding that many months from now may eventually lead to some actual track between two places with hardly any people. It hardly matters because there are no high speed trains to run on the track even if it were already built. 

That's not a great track record (pun intended). And of course, just as Jerry Brown wasn't sure how the state was going to pay for this a decade ago, the current governor isn't sure either. California is facing a big deficit. The only plan Newsom has to get this done is to apply for more federal grants. That's probably not going to work out once President Trump is in office and DOGE is operational.

The California High-Speed Rail Authority has applications pending with the U.S. Department of Transportation for even more infrastructure money to fully pay for extending the tracks into downtown Bakersfield and downtown Merced. 

Republicans in Congress have already proposed legislation to block any future federal allocations to the California project. Additionally, tech billionaire Elon Musk, tapped by President-elect Trump to lead an unofficial Department of Government Efficiency, has long been a critic of the state’s high-speed rail program, describing it as inefficient and wasteful...

“No one’s naive about the headwinds that are coming our way, but we withstood those a few years back,” Newsom said, “and we were able to continue to move forward and I have all the confidence in the world that we will move forward.”

As I've said many times when writing about this, I like high speed rail. I was in Japan a few months ago and the Shinkansen train there is fantastic for traveling between big cities and a lot less hassle than an airport. But California has clearly botched this from the start. That's not just one conservative blogger's opinion either.

The state was warned repeatedly that its plans were too complex. SNCF, the French national railroad, was among bullet train operators from Europe and Japan that came to California in the early 2000s with hopes of getting a contract to help develop the system.

The company’s recommendations for a direct route out of Los Angeles and a focus on moving people between Los Angeles and San Francisco were cast aside, said Dan McNamara, a career project manager for SNCF.‌

The company‌ ‌pulled out in 2011.

“There were so many things that went wrong,” Mr. McNamara said. “SNCF was very angry. They told the state they were leaving for North Africa, which was less politically dysfunctional. They went to Morocco and helped them build a rail system.”

Morocco’s bullet train started service in 2018.

Even if this system somehow gets finished in another 5-10 years, the cost by then will be so high that it would take sky high ridership to make it worth the price. I'm not convinced that will happen. On the contrary, ridership estimates have been trending down even as the cost has been creeping up.

As we're seeing this week with the response to the fires in Los Angeles, competent planning and execution really matters. When you don't have those things you wind up with firefighters unable to work because the hydrants are out of water. There hasn't been much competence on this project so far. It feels like Newsom is building this not because it makes sense but because Democrats don't want to admit they were wrong.

Here's a local news report on the photo op:


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