Trudeau survived one no-confidence vote last week and he survived another one today.

Legislators in the House of Commons voted 207-121 to defeat a bid by the official opposition Conservative Party to topple Trudeau, who faces increasing voter fatigue after almost nine years in power.

Both the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois voted with the Liberals to keep Trudeau in power. But the Bloc has indicated its support is entirely dependent on the Liberals agreeing to one of their policy demands.

In a statement following the vote, Poilievre blamed the NDP and the Bloc Québécois for its failure, saying the former had "sold out working Canadians" while the latter is "letting down Quebecers".

The Bloc Québécois, which represents the interests of Quebec, Canada’s French-speaking province, had issued an ultimatum to the Liberals for its continued support.

The sovereigntist party gave the government a 29 October deadline to pass two bills, one increasing pensions for seniors and one to bolster protections on Canada's supply management system, which controls production quotas and imports on dairy and poultry products.

There are more no-confidence votes yet to come and eventually the Bloc may actually vote against Trudeau. That could also embarrass NDP leader Jagmeet Singh into pulling back his party's support. Singh made a big show of tearing up his support agreement with the liberals a couple weeks ago. Can he really remain the sole source of support for a government he claims has failed?

What is Trudeau going to do as the walls seem to be closing in around him? There's a report in the Montreal Gazette today suggesting Trudeau may do the same thing he did the last time he seemed to be in big trouble. He could shut down Parliament through what's known as proroguing. 

Prorogation, I am told by sources at the highest level in Ottawa, is back on the table for the Liberals.

Back in 2020 Trudeau did this and effectively shut down investigations into a charity scandal that was damaging his brand. He denied it of course and claimed it was all about reorganizing the government to respond to COVID-19. It worked for him then but can it work for him now? He's not facing a scandal this time around, people are just sick of him. What could all of this mean?

The same sources tell me that Trudeau has finally decided to face reality, and it is brutal. If he persists and stays in office, he will — because of his own unpopularity — cause the election of his nemesis Pierre Poilievre...

It would be a crowded race, but prorogation would ensure that the Liberal leadership got unhindered coverage for its duration. Poilievre would lose his Question Period soapbox during the hiatus, and Singh would have trouble getting any attention.

In other words, Trudeau has become a boat anchor around his party's neck so he may be about to pull a Biden. If he steps aside, his replacement might have a chance of putting in a better showing against the conservatives. It certainly worked well for the Democrats. They were losing the election for months but by swapping out Biden for Harris they are at least competitive. 

Stay tuned, there could be some dramatic events unfolding in Canada next week. The end of PM Justin Trudeau may finally be on the horizon.