Russia has been making more nuclear threats lately but there's a growing sense in Moscow that they aren't working like they used to. Putin has become the boy who cried nuke.

When Russian President Vladimir Putin warned earlier this month that Western approval for Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia would mean Moscow was at war with NATO, Russian propagandists rushed to rattle the nuclear saber.

Alexander Mikhailov, director of the Bureau of Military Political Analysis, called for bombing plywood mock-ups of London and Washington — complete with reproductions of Buckingham Palace, Big Ben and the White House — to simulate nuclear strikes, so that they would “burn so beautifully that it will horrify the world.”...

But inside the Kremlin, there is a growing recognition that the repeated use of the nuclear threat is starting to lose its potency and Moscow’s red lines are constantly being crossed. Analysts and officials close to senior Russian diplomats said instead that Putin is casting around for a more nuanced and limited response to the West allowing Ukraine to use longer range missiles to strike Russia.

“There has been an overflow of nuclear threats,” said a Russian official speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject. “There is already immunity to such statements, and they don’t frighten anyone.”

In an ongoing effort to show just how truly scary he is, Putin has been testing his latest nuclear-capable ICBM. But satellite photos show that a test planned for this month didn't go as expected. 

Maxar satellite images from Saturday appear to show a crater roughly 200 feet wide and extensive damage to the surrounding area at the launch silo at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in the Arkhangelsk region in northern Russia. Imagery recorded earlier this month does not show any visible damage to the site...

“By all indications, a flight test of the Sarmat ICBM, scheduled to take place between 19 and 23 September 2024 ended in failure,” wrote Pavel Podvig, an analyst based in Geneva, who runs the Russian Nuclear Forces project, in a blog post analyzing the images. “The character of destruction suggests that the missile exploded in the silo.”...

The Sarmat is Russia’s most modern ICBM and has been referred to by lawmakers in threats against the West. In response to calls from European leaders to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range strikes on Russian territory, Vyacheslav Volodin, the chairman of Russia’s State Duma, the lower house of parliament, threatened last week to use the Sarmats in retaliation.

George Barros who works with Institute for the Study of War posted the photos on X.

A large crater (approximately 62 meters wide) is visible at the launch silo and extensive damage in and around the launch pad can be seen which suggests that the missile exploded shortly after ignition or launch. pic.twitter.com/2a4l7YWf3m

— George Barros (@georgewbarros) September 22, 2024

He argued the failure was effectively a PR win for Ukraine as it probably preempted another round of doomerism.

... in which the usual suspects who inadvertently and otherwise advance Russian information operations would use propaganda based around a successful ICBM launch to argue that we must effectively capitulate and force Ukraine into premature negotiations.

— George Barros (@georgewbarros) September 22, 2024

Thus far there have been five tests of the new ICBM, four of which have failed.

This is the fourth unsuccessful attempt to test this new heavy intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

The only successful test of the Sarmat missile took place on April 20, 2022.

A Russian site reported on Telegram that there have actually been six failed tests in the past year. In addition to the failed tests of the Satan II missile there was also a failed test of the Poseidon nuclear torpedo which reportedly failed to operate and sank after being launched from a sub.