How Long Can Justin Trudeau Hang On?

AP Photo/Susan Walsh

Canadian PM Justin Trudeau is famous but he is not popular. He had an awkward encounter with a steel worker in the street just a few weeks ago.

As Trudeau reached out for a handshake, the worker refused it, confronting the prime minister instead about his struggle to make ends meet despite having a steady job.

Trudeau responded by listing things his Liberal government has done to help working families, including a national dental care programme and a tariff on Chinese steel that is designed to protect Canadian workers.

“I don’t believe you for a second,” the steel worker replied, after telling the prime minister: “I think you are only here for another year.”

Advertisement

When he was elected for the first time 9 years ago Trudeau had a 63% approval rating. Now that rating is down to 28 percent or a bit lower. Darrell Bricker, a pollster, told the BBC Trudeau's time was almost up.

“It’s basically over,” said Mr Bricker of Trudeau’s government in an interview with the BBC.

“All that is happening is sands sliding out of the sand dial, and we’re working our way towards an inevitable conclusion.”

Rank and file members of his own party are just tired of him.

“I am a Liberal supporter, but it’s almost like enough is enough,” Michael Altimas, 79, a retired city bus driver, said during a walk on a sunny day along the district’s long pedestrian commercial street. “For the most part, he’s been a good prime minister.

“But he’s had nine years,” Mr. Altimas added, “and people are hearing often enough that he messed up, and they don’t want to support him anymore.”

Just over a week ago the head of the New Democratic Party, Jahmeet Singh, announced he was ending the agreement to support Trudeau's government. That does not mean he will automatically vote against Trudeau if a no-confidence vote takes place. It may just be an attempt by the NDP to create some distance from a candidate who appears to be sinking fast.

Meanwhile, conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has made a career out of picking Trudeau apart and has vowed to trigger a no-confidence vote. He's challenging the NDP to vote with him.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre says his party will put forward a non-confidence motion "at the earliest possible opportunity" in an effort to trigger a federal election. 

And he's demanding the NDP support the motion to prove that the move to tear up the deal with Liberals was not just a meaningless "stunt."

"Canadians cannot wait. They need to vote now for common sense Conservatives, and Jagmeet Singh needs to vote with us to trigger a carbon tax election now," Poilievre said in an address to his caucus on Sunday.

Advertisement

Trudeau's party is facing an election today which could say a lot about his party's near future. The election is taking place in Montreal, usually a stronghold for the Liberals, but this year polls show a very tight race with a real chance for the NDP to win.

"The fact that this is in the prime minister's backyard and they're fighting for it, I think tells you everything you need to know about where Liberals support is across the country," David Coletto, chair and CEO of Abacus Data, said Sunday on Rosemary Barton Live.

A loss in Montreal would put additional pressure on Trudeau to step aside. He has been getting that message from members of his own party in recent weeks, but so far he is brushing it off.

Several MPs and former cabinet ministers have publicly called for his exit, including veteran Quebec Liberal MP Alexandra Mendès at this week’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C.

Privately, prominent party heavyweights, elder statesmen, fundraisers and campaign strategists have all urged Mr. Trudeau to leave.

Two sources say that Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, was one of those who told Mr. Trudeau in a July conversation that he can’t win the next election.

A former Liberal cabinet minister said that when he bluntly gave the Prime Minister the same message, he didn’t blink an eye.

“I can’t wait to take on Poilievre,” was Mr. Trudeau’s reply.

Trudeau seems to believe if he can hold out a little longer the Liberals will be stuck with him as it will be too late to change leaders so close to next year's election. But some Liberals are looking at what just happened in the US presidential race, with Biden stepping aside very late in the process, and are thinking that's their path forward.

Advertisement

We'll have to wait and see but it's clear the pressure on Trudeau to step aside is building and the conservatives are going to do their best to take advantage of that.

Join the conversation as a VIP Member

Trending on HotAir Videos

Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement