To sum up what has happened in the past few days, Mayor Thao learned last week that she would be facing a recall this fall. Then a couple days after that, the FBI raided her home, and several homes belonging to a wealthy businessman that has supported her in the past. Though she hasn't been charged with any crime, it certainly doesn't look good.

For four days after the FBI search, Mayor Thao was completely absent from public view. Finally on Monday of this week she reappeared and gave a 10-minute press conference denying any wrongdoing and also suggesting that the timing of the FBI raid was suspicious (since it came shortly after the recall was approved).

That press conference was the last straw for her personal attorney who she had hired just a few days earlier. He said he didn't know in advance about the press conference and wouldn't have advised her to take the tone she did. One day later, her chief spokesman also quit.

There were calls for Thao to step aside but she refused to consider it. And yet, even apart from all of her potential legal problems, things continue to get worse for Mayor Thao. 

Yesterday, the city council held a meeting on a proposed budget which has to be passed by this Friday. The city is currently facing a $200 million deficit over the next two years which means there will be significant cuts to city services, starting with the police.

City Councilmember Janani Ramachandran says the new budget includes $63 million in cuts that will likely impact public safety.

That may include cuts to about 100 police officers by freezing positions.

It also includes 41 Oakland police civilian staff - which are not cops on the street.

The proposed cuts may also force the city to shut down four fire stations.

There is a wrinkle here which is that the city is currently selling the Oakland coliseum. If it sells for the expected price (around $15 million) within the next two months, then the cuts could be more modest. However if they don't get the expected price or if the sale takes longer than expected the cuts could result in the loss of nearly 100 officers. The police say they don't see how they can do the job under those circumstances.

According to the Oakland Police Officers Association, there are two scenarios: one to cut the force down to 678 from 712 officers or all the way down to 628.

"I can't see a solution on how we can effectively handle crimes and respond to calls in the city," said Huy Nguyen, OPOA President.

Crime in Oakland has been trending down this year after a major spike in 2023. But a Bishop in the city says law and order still hasn't been restored:

 "One of the young men that go to the church I pastor, he went to the movies last night," Bishop Bob Jackson said. "Coming out of the movies he was shot and just by the grace of god he wasn't killed."...

"Law and order has to be restored in the City of Oakland," said BIshop Jackson. "The lawlessness has just gone too far."

It was only February when Gov. Newsom sent 120 CHP officers to the city to try to bring crime under control. What happens if instead of adding 120 officers you subtract 100? Oakland may be about to find out.

Finally, there is one reporter working for a local CBS affiliate who has been digging into what the FBI raid was about. Nothing has been confirmed yet but this is the best explanation I've seen. 

Just before the last election, which Thao won by less than 700 votes, 170,000 mailers were sent out to voters trashing two of her opponents. Those mailers were put together by a local direct mail marketing company. The person who paid for them was a Thao supporter named Mario Juarez who runs an independent expenditure group called California Forward Now.

Samari Johnson owns Butterfyl Direct Marketing, a direct mailing agency in Oakland. Johnson said his company printed the attack flyers and mailed them out in 2022.

Johnson said a couple of weeks before the November 2022 general election, a long-time customer, Mario Juarez, contracted him to print roughly 170,000 attack mailers targeting Oakland mayoral candidates Ignacio De La Fuente and Loren Taylor...

Johnson said the attack ads went out about one week before the election. He said Juarez paid him $31,200 for his service and gave him three checks to pay the U.S. Postal Service for the postage. After the mailers went out, he said all three checks bounced, totaling more than $53,000.

Because all of the checks bounced, the US Postal Service is out about $60,000 with interest. That may explain why postal service inspectors were seen at some of the FBI raids that took place last Wednesday morning.

And there's one more wrinkle which may tie this together and explain why three of the four FBI searches last week were focused on the Duong family. Mayor Thao's former chief of staff, Renia Webb, says she was at an event held at a local restaurant and heard Mario Juarez walk up to Andy Duong and ask for money:

"Andy was like, 'Yeah, I need to talk to you about something.'  And Mario was like, 'Yeah, I need some more money.'  That was his exact words.  And he and Sheng and Mario went off to the corner right outside of Seabreeze where the Jack London (cabin) is. And they stood right there and talked maybe for about 15 minutes," said Webb. "I know that they're not supposed to be doing that. During campaigns, the campaign and that I.E. account are never supposed to work together. They're supposed to be two separate total entities."

There are obviously some missing pieces from this story, starting with where did the money go? Juarez allegedly asked for more money but obviously the checks he gave to USPS bounced. So did Andy Duong turn him down? Did the money meant for the mailers go somewhere else? We don't know any of that yet, but this does seem to give us a hint what kind of crime the FBI might be investigating.

Here's the full report from the CBS affiliate.