All the world needs now is another dictator launching a war on its neighbor. Last year Putin launched the war in Ukraine and in October Gaza initiated its own war against Israel. Recently there have been signs that Nicolas Maduro’s regime in Venezuela may be planning an invasion of neighboring Guyana. The issue is supposedly up for a vote this coming Sunday.

Venezuelans hold as self-evident truth that their homeland’s eastern end includes Guyana’s Essequibo region next to the Atlantic — a territory larger than Greece and rich in oil and minerals. As students, they learn it is subject to a century-old dispute and then, for the most part, forget about it…

President Nicolás Maduro and his allies are appealing to Venezuelans’ patriotism as they summon voters supposedly to decide the territory’s future in a Dec. 3 referendum, although the legal and practical implications of the vote are questionable. They are using leaflets, reggaeton, videos and other content to promote what Jeanmaikol already knows…

Most of Guyana’s foreign investment is in the 61,600-square-mile (159,500-square-kilometer) area, which accounts for two-thirds of its territory. Yet, Venezuela has considered Essequibo as its own since gaining independence from Spain in 1811, and it disputes the border decided by international arbitrators in 1899 when Guyana was still a British colony.

Guyana appealed to the UN earlier this month to block the referendum. That court is expected to rule on the referendum in a week or so, i.e. after it happens. Venezuela shrugged this off saying the vote on whether or not to annex most of its neighbors territory was an internal matter:

Vice President Delcy Rodríguez was speaking on the second day of hearings into a request by Guyana for the United Nations’ top court to order a halt to parts of a consultative referendum in December on the future of the Essequibo region, which makes up some two-thirds of Guyana.

“Venezuela reaffirms its categorical rejection of Guyana’s audacious action to interfere in its internal affairs. Nothing will prevent the referendum scheduled for Dec. 3 from being held,” Rodríguez told judges at the International Court of Justice.

So what happens if the referendum passes (or if the government announces it passed whether it did or not)? No one is exactly sure but the political winds seem to be blowing in the direction of seizing the territory whether the people who live there like it or not.

Juan Romero, a lawmaker with the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela, told state media that one of the actions the government would have to pursue if people vote in favor of the measures is a constitutional reform to incorporate English as one of Venezuela’s official languages. Meanwhile, another ruling party lawmaker, William Fariñas, has claimed “Essequibans” already “feel Venezuelan.”

That, however, could not be further from the truth.

People in Essequibo are proud of their Indigenous heritage. They point to the names of landmarks, given in their native language, as an example of why they believe the region never belonged to Venezuela. And they insist they do not want their lives disrupted by the referendum.

The situation is looking bad enough that Brazil is reportedly preparing its troops in the area for a possible invasion by Venezuela.

The Brazilian Armed Forces have reportedly been placed into a Heightened State of Readiness due to a Significant Movement of Military Equipment and Personnel in Eastern Venezuela on the Border of Guyana which has recently been Detected, with Officials believing that Venezuela may… pic.twitter.com/NLgITfXaEA

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) November 29, 2023

The rest of that tweet above reads: “…with Officials believing that Venezuela may soon Invade the Small South American Country in order to Annex the “Guayana Esequiba” Region which accounts for over 60% of the Nation’s Territory and has been Claimed by the Venezuelan Government.”

Recently Venezuela and Russia have reportedly been deepening their relationship:

Russia expects a visit by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro as the two oil producers deepen their cooperation and Russian companies seek to invest more in the South American country, President Vladimir Putin’s oil point man said on Monday.

Venezuela boasts the world’s largest proven oil reserves and Russia is the world’s second largest oil exporter. A source familiar with the plans told Reuters on condition of anonymity that the Maduro visit would take place by the end of the year.

There’s little doubt that Venezuela’s renewed interest in Guyana has everything to do with an Exxon oil survey in 2015 which found significant oil in the territory. Might Russia be privately encouraging Maduro to seize more of this oil? Whether he did or not, Putin is certainly aware that every new crisis on the world stage distracts a bit more from the invasion he launched last year, taking the heat off him and simultaneously creating more problems for the US. It’s just speculation on my part but I wouldn’t put anything past Russia at this point.