Nate Cohn has a piece up today about Biden’s terrible performance with young people in several recent polls. He notes that the idea that young people could be considering a vote for Trump seems hard to believe for many people, so much so that they’ve decided the polls must be wrong. But Cohn makes the case that the polls are all pretty consistent in showing this weakness. So while things could definitely change in the next 11 months, it would be a mistake to assume the polling is wrong at this moment in time.

 Virtually every poll shows a close race between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump among young voters.

When dozens of polls all say the same thing, it’s worth taking the polling seriously. It’s easy to remember that the polling can be wrong, but it can be easy to forget that the polling is usually in the ballpark.

Aside from a general defense of polling, which you would expect from a guy who analyzes polls for a living, Cohn asks a more specific question. Is there anything that could reasonably explain or justify what we’re seeing in these polls? And the answer to that question is the elephant in the room for Biden fans.

I think it’s fairly straightforward to explain Mr. Biden’s weakness among young voters today, much as it was easy to explain Mrs. Clinton’s among white working-class voters in 2016. Young voters are by far the likeliest to say he’s just too old to be an effective president. Many are upset about his handling of the Israel-Hamas war. And all of this is against the backdrop of Mr. Biden’s longstanding weakness among young voters, who weren’t enthusiastic about him in 2020, and Mr. Trump’s gains among nonwhite voters, who are disproportionately young.

I think all of this is basically right but a lot can change in the next six months. The war with Hamas could end making Biden’s support for Israel more of a back-burner issue. Trump could be convicted of a crime, which might change how young people feel about him. In short, Democratic voters could return home in plenty of time for the election.

But there’s another possibility that Cohn doesn’t spend much time examining. What if things get worse for Biden? Imagine for a moment that Biden has a Mitch McConnell style senior moment or falls down a flight of stairs. To be clear, I’m not wishing ill on the president, but we’ve all seen fall down a number of times already. The chances of it happening again in the next year is probably close to 100%. So what if something happens that confirms all of the worst fears about Biden’s age and health? That might solidify the numbers we see in these polls or even make them worse. Simply put, things don’t have to get better for Biden. They could get worse.

Here’s the top comment on this story.

Young people are not being delusional or misguided: Biden IS too old, and he severely misjudged the unpopularity of cheerleading Netanyahu’s butchery.

Simply dismissing these valid concerns will lead to a terrible disappointment for the top of the Democratic ticket next year.

The #2 comment:

As an Independent who can’t stomach what the GOP has become, I can’t overstate how disappointed I am that Biden is the Democrat nominee. He has had a successful platform but it’s not resonating with people now matter how hard they push Bidenomics, the Chips Act or Build Back Better. The reality is that people are paying higher prices than they were four years ago for everyday goods and that’s their “economy”. They don’t see that it’s a global phenomenon, they are just looking for someone to blame and rightly or wrongly, Biden will be that person. Unfortunately, he’s a horrible messenger who comes across as frail and/or angry when he tries to tout his accomplishments . I cringe watching him squint and either whisper or yell when he delivers remarks and I’m in my 50’s. I can’t imagine how poorly he must come across to people in their teens and twenties. I don’t feel it’s hyperbole writing that his decision to run is putting our democracy at stake. He needs to step aside!

And one more that brings us back to the elephant in the room.

This basic point has been dismissed by the Democratic brass far too long and without nearly enough genuine consideration. I’m a 23 year old progressive, teach AP Government, and I think he’s too old. Ignoring the handwringing over his cognitive capabilities, which is valid though also applicable to Trump, Biden isn’t cut out for the development of modern political thought. My 58 year old Independent father, who voted McCain-Obama-Trump-Biden, thinks Biden is too old. My 15-16 year old students unanimously think Biden is too old. It is politically irresponsible to trot him out on a campaign and expect positive results, it was politically irresponsible not to appoint a proper successor as his VP, and it was ultimately politically irresponsible to throw the weight of 2020 behind him to begin with. I say this as someone who generally aligns with many of his accomplishments.

Don’t forget that Biden got through the 2020 election out of sight a lot of the time thanks to COVID. He has no such excuse this time around. We’re going to be seeing a lot of him in the next year and if what we see is a frail old man who can’t remember which members of his party are alive or dead then Democrats have every reason to worry.