According to a story published this evening by the Washington Post, US Intelligence agencies have concluded Ukraine’s counteroffensive is not going to achieve it’s main goal, which was to punch through the Russian defensive lines and cut off supplies moving through occupied territory.

Ukraine’s forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations…

Melitopol is critical to Ukraine’s counteroffensive because it is considered the gateway to Crimea. The city is at the intersection of two important highways and a railroad line that allow Russia to move military personnel and equipment from the peninsula to other occupied territories in southern Ukraine…

The path to Melitopol is an extremely challenging one, and even recapturing closer cities such as Tokmak will be difficult, said Rob Lee, a military analyst with the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

“Russia has three main defensive lines there and then fortified cities after that,” he said. “It’s not just a question about whether Ukraine can breach one or two of them, but can they breach all three and have enough forces available after taking attrition to achieve something more significant like taking Tokmak or something beyond that.”

Here’s a map from the Institute for the Study of War showing the territory in question. You can just make out Tokmak and Melitopol.

On one hand, this news is definitely going to add to the pressure to stop sending financial aid and weapons to Ukraine. If Ukraine can’t get through Russia’s defenses even with the addition of heavy weapons like Leopard II tanks then it’s not clear what the next step is.

Perhaps not coincidentally, the ISW’s latest assessment notes that a Russian Battalion commander named Alexander Khodakovsky is suggesting Russia needs to consider freezing the war with current borders because he doesn’t believe Russia will be taking any more territory. But also, it’s believed that a freeze would give time for Russia to wait out western support.

Khodakovsky stated that Russia will not be able to topple Ukraine militarily in the near term and that Russian forces are unlikely to easily occupy additional Ukrainian cities, echoing comments Prigozhin had made in April 2023.[1] Khodakovsky concluded that Russia will likely have to come to a “truce” and that Russia may enter a phase “of neither peace nor war” with Ukraine.[2] Khodakovsky suggested that Ukraine would be sufficiently weakened in this state of frozen conflict and that Russia would be able to exert more influence over Ukraine in such a situation than it currently can during the ”Special Military Operation.”[3] Prigozhin’s April 14 essay suggested that Russia freeze the war in Ukraine to set conditions for a future victory without negotiations.[4] Russian sources have periodically claimed that a Kremlin faction is interested in freezing the war along the current frontlines for similar reasons as well as over concerns about domestic political stability and the economic fallout from the war.[5] Discussion of this narrative has waned with Prigozhin’s relative silence following Wagner’s June 24 rebellion and the arrest of ardent ultranationalist Igor Girkin, who routinely called on the Kremlin to resist the faction that aims to freeze the war.[6] Khodakovsky may be reintroducing the narrative into the Russian information space on behalf of the faction allegedly interested in freezing the war, although Khodakovsky likely has limited influence on the Russian leadership itself. ISW continues to assess that a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine and protraction of the war will only benefit Russia by allowing Russian forces to reconstitute and letting Russia wear down Western support for Ukraine.

It’s probably to Russia’s advantage at this moment to declare victory and try to set themselves up for another invasion/push a few years from now. Whether or not Putin is willing to settle for that is anyone’s guess.

From Ukraine’s point of view, western support is about as high as it’s likely to get. If they want to keep fighting to reclaim all of their territory, they may need to take a risk on a more aggressive operation now to convince the world that kind of total victory is still possible.