Jazz wrote earlier today about a statement from President Zelensky in which he said Ukraine was not yet ready for the long-promised spring counteroffensive. And yet, there are reports today that the ongoing battle in Bakhmut has shifted a bit in Ukraine’s favor.

Ukrainian forces says they are conducting “effective counterattacks” in the Bakhmut area, in comments that are in line with claims from the leader of the Russian mercenary group Wagner that Kyiv has recaptured some territory…

“Thanks to our well-thought-out defense in the Bakhmut sector, we are getting results from the effective actions of our units,” the commander of Ukrainian Land Forces, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, said on Telegram Wednesday.

“In particular, we are conducting effective counterattacks. In some areas of the front, the enemy was unable to withstand the onslaught of Ukrainian defenders and retreated to a distance of up to 2 kilometers.”

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Russian mercenary outfit known as the Wagner Group, said Zelensky was lying about not being ready for a counteroffensive.

Prigozhin also accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of lying, after he remarked that Kyiv still needs “a bit more time” before it launches a much anticipated counteroffensive. “Zelensky is lying,” Prigozhin said on his official social media channels Thursday. “The counteroffensive is in full swing.”

Ukraine is arguing there’s a difference between a counterattack in one town and a couteroffensive but whatever it is the Ukrainians are doing right now, both sides agree it’s working.

Ukrainian forces had been “unfortunately, partially successful” and were approaching Bakhmut from the flanks, Prigozhin said Thursday on Telegram.

Earlier this week, Prigozhin blamed the setback in Bakhmut on Russia’s regular army who he says fled their positions rather than fight.

In comments Tuesday, Prigozhin said that “one of the units of the Ministry of Defense fled from one of our flanks, abandoning their positions. They all fled and [laid] bare a front nearly 2 kilometers wide and 500 meters deep.”

Prigozhin has been involved in a war of words with the Ministry of Defense for months and it’s pretty clear there is no love lost between the two. However, the claim that Russian military units are fleeing the enemy is something new.

…while Prigozhin has frequently poured scorn on the Russian military and its leadership, he has not previously accused Russian units of running from battle and allowing Ukrainian forces to recapture territory.

Prigozhin said the 72nd brigade “just ran the hell out of there.”

Responding to questions from a Russian media outlet, Prigozhin said: “There is a serious risk of encirclement of PMC Wagner in Bakhmut as a result of the failure of the flanks. The flanks are already cracking and falling through.”

I’ve speculated before that, given how much the army seems to hate this guy, maybe they really are shorting his ammunition supply. From the Russian army’s perspective, it may be preferable to see Wagner forces get chewed up by Ukraine than it is to have them seize Bakhmut and claim credit for the only real progress Russia has made on the battlefield for many months. That might lead to awkward questions from the boss Vladimir Putin, questions like ‘If they can claim territory, why can’t you?’

As David pointed out recently, it’s not as if Russia is holding back from this fight. They’ve committed everything they’ve got, to the point that the only tank they could scrounge up for their annual military parade was a 70-year-old T-34. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry posted this video of it which made me laugh.

We watched russia's "Victory Day" parade today with great interest. Our tribute: pic.twitter.com/56evOrTcnn

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 9, 2023

The only weapons that Putin hasn’t unleashed at this point are nukes, though he has hinted and threatened to do so a few times. On that front, a Yale professor of history wrote a piece yesterday arguing that fears of Russian escalation have proven unfounded.

In nearly 15 months of war, despite Russian nuclear propaganda and Western anxiety, there has been no use of nuclear weapons. This is an absence worthy of an explanation. Those who predicted escalation if Ukrainians resisted, if the West supplied weapons or if Russia suffered defeat have thus far been wrong. Strategic thinkers point to deterrence and note that nuclear use would not in fact bring a Russian victory. It would ensure a dramatic Western response and make Russian leaders pariahs. But there is a deeper explanation: Russia’s nuclear talk is itself the weapon…

Some Americans have proposed a nuclear scenario in which Russians will have to use nuclear weapons to head off defeat. But Russia has been defeated in Ukraine, on its own terms, again and again. What it has proved is its ability to change those terms after each defeat. Russia failed to achieve the explicit aim of the “special military operation” to overthrow Ukraine’s democratic government. There will be no greater humiliation than that. The defeat at Kyiv was followed by further defeats at Kharkiv and Kherson. Each loss led to cover stories from Russia’s state propagandists and their believers, to talk of good-will gestures, strategic withdrawals and so on. The escalation has been in the propagandists’ workload…

By taking nuclear blackmail seriously, we have actually increased the overall unpredictability of nuclear war. If nuclear blackmail enables a Russian victory, the consequences will be incalculably awful. If any country with nuclear weapons can do whatever it likes, then law means nothing, no international order is possible and catastrophe beckons at every turn.

He concludes, “When Russians talk about nuclear war, the safest response is to ensure their very conventional defeat.”

Speaking of Russian propagandists, even they are struggling to explain what winning would look like at this point. It seems to be clear to them, even if they’re not supposed to admit it, that victory won’t look anything like whatever they thought it would be a year ago.

Fourteen months into the war, Russian propagandists realize they don't know what victory is for Russia.

They also admit that pushing NATO's borders further from Russia didn't exactly work out as planned. pic.twitter.com/A5z6sbKbjs

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 11, 2023