Well, it depends who you ask but the short answer is maybe 221 or 222 seats for the GOP. Since they need 218 for the majority it’s a very narrow advantage, smaller than the one Nancy Pelosi had previously. Here’s where things stand.

The NY Times tracker says the GOP has already won 209 seats and Dems have 191 seats. That leaves 35 undecided. Of those 35 seats, Democrats are currently leading in 23 and the GOP is leading in the remaining 12. All but a handful of the outstanding seats are on the west coast (California, Oregon, Wasington, Arizona and Nevada). If both parties win all the seats where they are currently leading, that would result in the GOP having a 221 final tally.

However, some of the seats yet to be decided have very narrow margins. For instance, Lauren Boebert’s seat in Colorado. She was trailing very slightly yesterday and this morning she finally took the lead. As I write this, she has a lead of 386 votes out of over 300,000 cast and over 95% of the votes have been counted.

There’s a minor story about that race today. DNC adviser Kurt Bardella (who briefly worked for Breitbart when he was a GOP consultant years ago) said on Joy Reid’s show today that Boebert could start an Only Fans account if she loses her race. Here’s the clip.

WOW: @JoyAnnReid laughs hysterically after @kurtbardella slut shames @laurenboebert by joking that she’d get an onlyfans if she loses her congressional bid. What happened to #feminism @MSNBC? pic.twitter.com/DbtDL5o41F

— Richie🎥McG🍿 (@RichieMcGinniss) November 10, 2022

There are two races that are even closer than Boebert’s race. In California’s 13th district, Republican John Duarte leads Democrat Adam Gray by 203 votes. However in that race only 50% of the vote has been counted so it could still go either way.

Colorado’s 8th district is currently the closest in the country. Democrat Yadira Caraveo leads Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer by just 134 with 89% of the votes counted. So, again, this is one that could go either way. However, Kirkmeyer conceded the race last night even though it’s razor thin and hasn’t been called by major outlets.

Finally, another race I’ve been watching is the one to decide who will be my representative in California’s 47th district. At the moment, progressive rock star Katie Porter leads GOP challenger Scott Baugh by a slim margin of 1,552 votes with 58% of the total vote counted. That’s a pretty impressive showing for Baugh so far who was massively outspent in this race. Porter rand ads nonstop for weeks spending over $21 million dollars to save herself.

Overall, there are only 11 seats where the current margin is 2 points or less. If you exclude those seats and give all the seats with wider margins to the party currently winning them you come up with 217 GOP to 207 Dems. In other words, the GOP only has to win one of those 11 closest races to win the House and it’s probably going to win 3-4.

Other observers have come up with slightly different numbers. For instance, Steve Kornacki suggested earlier today that NBC’s model shows the GOP ending up with 222 seats.

House state of play: GOP has won 210 seats; Dems 192.

There are 33 districts NBC News hasn't called. Dems currently lead tally in 22 of them; GOP in 11. (Some of these leads seem likely to vanish when all ballots are counted.)

Our model has GOP landing at 222, +/- 7 seats. pic.twitter.com/LuNZuKecVi

— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) November 10, 2022

Hopefully a lot of these seats will be called by tomorrow and even the ones that aren’t should be closer to completing the count. I’ll update this post later if I see any dramatic changes.

Update: Boebert’s lead is up to almost 800 votes now. Also the Colorado 8 district I mentioned above now has Democrat Yadira Caraveo leading by about 1,150 votes.