Yesterday I pointed out that Democrats had become concerned they might be in trouble in a blue New York district that Joe Biden previous won by 20 points. Today, that race is one of ten that Cook Political Report says has shifted toward the GOP.

The scariest Halloween reality for House Democrats is the number of seats President Biden carried comfortably in 2020 that are at genuine risk a week out. And if you’re looking for House upsets, the best places to watch might be blue states where there’s no competitive statewide races driving turnout, Democratic governors are underperforming and GOP candidates have been able to seize on high crime and inflation.

“I’ve never seen an election where the signs are this divergent and…lumpy,” said one veteran Democratic strategist familiar with polling in a wide array of races. “It’s less nationalized than we’re accustomed to, and there’s more weakness in the blue end of the battlefield,” the strategist said, pointing to late-emerging problems in California and New York districts that Donald Trump lost by between 14 and 20 points.

This week, we’re moving ten seats in the GOP’s direction – all in very blue states and all in districts Biden carried by between eight and 20 points in 2020.

In the case of Joe Morelle vs. La’Ron Singletary in NY-25, Cook says it’s still a likely Democratic seat but that’s downgraded from being a “Solid D” seat. And as you can see, that really the best news in this entire list.

NEW @CookPolitical House rating changes: 10 more blue state districts move in Republicans' direction, including #CA47 Rep. Katie Porter (D) from Lean D to Toss Up. Full analysis: https://t.co/ldqos2Pi8J pic.twitter.com/rD40MW6vdw

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 1, 2022

Rep. Julia Brownley in CA-26 is another Democratic seat I mentioned yesterday. That race been downgraded from “Solid D” to “Lean D” (a step below “Likely D”). And Dina Titus in NV-01 isn’t on this list but her race is already rated as a toss-up by Cook.

The race I’m most excited about on this list is CA-47. Katie Porter currently represents the district in my backyard. She has made a name for herself saying things on MSNBC. For instance:

Democrat Rep. Katie Porter claims #Bidenflation "reinforce[s]" the "need" for abortion.

"The fact that we're seeing this jump in expenses … pay more at the grocery store, pay more at the pump, pay more for housing is a reason" for abortion. pic.twitter.com/jVjuzXRhPz

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) May 12, 2022

Last year she was given the “Badass Woman Award” from InStyle. She’s a progressive rock star. Not quite at the AOC level but close.

“I have a Badass Woman award & I asked myself this morning whether I was good enough as a boss, good enough as a Representative, good enough as a mother. We need to stop asking OURSELVES if we are good enough, and start saying ‘not good enough’ to the forces holding us back.” 1/3 pic.twitter.com/8WT4ewJmkP

— Emily Porter, M.D. (@dremilyportermd) November 17, 2021

Speaking of AOC, just over a week ago AOC made a visit to Porter’s district for a get out the vote effort. Technically I’m not sure if this was a Porter campaign event but it happened to take place on the UCI campus where Porter used to work (she still lives in restricted UCI housing) in the district she represents.

And because Porter is a rock star she has raised nearly $23 million dollars and spent all of that and more on an endless flood of TV ads. I’ve been seeing half a dozen of those ads a day for weeks, most of them focused on abortion which, until very recently, was the topic that Democrats believed was going to save them at the polls. Last week, for the first time, I saw a new Porter ad focused on the economy. She’s clearly aware that the abortion issue isn’t working that well.

This is a district that Biden won by 11 points, but as you can see, Cook now rates the race a toss-up. FiveThirtyEight gives Porter a 78% chance of winning but I suspect it’s closer than that or she wouldn’t be spending so much money to keep herself afloat. Baugh is certainly celebrating the news today.

The enthusiasm in the precincts has been sky-high all summer and fall and the Washington DC prognosticators are now confirming what we have known all along, we are going to win this race. #CA47

— Scott Baugh (@ScottBaughCA47) November 1, 2022

The GOP may not win all of these races but the fact remains that Democrats in deep blue seats are playing defense while Republicans are expanding the map. This has every sign of being a red wave election in the House. Here’s Baugh’s most recent ad.