Tony Evers, the Democratic governor of Wisconsin is in a very tight race against Republican challenger Tim Michels. A recent Marquette poll said the race was a toss-up. Five Thirty Eight’s average of recent polls shows Michels leading by 0.7 points. RCP also shows an incredibly tight race though they have Evers up by 0.5 points. Today the NY Times published a piece suggesting the reason Evers could lose this race is leftover bitterness about what happened in Kenosha after a police officer shot Jacob Blake.

As you probably remember, police were called to a home where Blake was threatening to take a car that didn’t belong to him. Police also learned that Blake had a felony warrant out his arrest, something later investigation showed he was aware of in advance. When police tried to arrest Blake he fought them and shrugged off an attempt to tase him. He walked around the car with a knife in his hand and refused to drop it when ordered. When he tried to get in the car, which had his children in the back, an officer thought he was turning around with the knife and shot him in the back seven times.

That shooting prompted rioting including arson that did a lot of damage in downtown Kenosha. That gave us the unforgettable chyron by CNN seen above: “Fiery but mostly peaceful protests after police shooting.” It also led to a confrontation during one of those riots between Kyle Rittenhouse and three men who he shot in self-defense. Two of the men died. According to the Times, some Kenosha residents haven’t forgotten those nights of chaos and may hesitate to pull the lever for Evers again.

Joy Ermert, 46, the owner of Lulu Birds, an antique shop in downtown Kenosha, is a staunch Democrat who voted for Gov. Tony Evers four years ago. She admires his commitment to social justice and reproductive rights, she said.

Only one thing has made her hesitate as she considers casting a ballot for him again: the riots…

Two years later, Mr. Evers’s handling of the unrest has Ms. Ermert questioning his leadership. Now, as Mr. Evers enters the final days of a tight re-election contest facing a Republican challenger, Tim Michels, she is still asking: Did Mr. Evers err in releasing a statement hours after the shooting of Mr. Blake that seemed to criticize the police officer and suggest that the episode was motivated by racism? Could the governor and other officials have done more to stop the unrest? Who was responsible for what happened?

The questions come at a time when crime has become one of the top issues for voters nationally and in the midst of an excruciatingly close race in a key swing state. Now, more than a few voters in Kenosha, Wisconsin’s fourth-largest city and a longtime Democratic stronghold, are wondering whether a drop in support for Mr. Evers in Kenosha could play a major role in the outcome of the race. And it’s clear that he is struggling to quiet those concerns.

“I think Evers is going to have a hard time in Kenosha,” Ms. Ermert said. “He’s got to fight for himself here. He needs redemption.”

To be fair, the Kenosha Sheriff (who endorsed Trump in 2020) said he didn’t blame the riots on Gov. Evers.

Sheriff Beth, who endorsed Donald J. Trump for president in 2020, said that Mr. Evers sent all the National Guard members that were requested at the time.

“I don’t blame anybody for what happened except for the rioters who came,” Sheriff Beth said. “It’s campaign time right now. They’re looking to discredit someone. And I have no one to discredit.”

The Times story goes on to downplay the idea that Evers’ statement contributed to the chaos but while they link to it (above) they don’t quote it, probably because it doesn’t hold up too well. Here’s Evers’ statement:

Tonight, Jacob Blake was shot in the back multiple times, in broad daylight, in Kenosha, Wisconsin. Kathy and I join his family, friends, and neighbors in hoping earnestly that he will not succumb to his injuries. While we do not have all of the details yet, what we know for certain is that he is not the first Black man or person to have been shot or injured or mercilessly killed at the hands of individuals in law enforcement in our state or our country.

We stand with all those who have and continue to demand justice, equity, and accountability for Black lives in our country—lives like those of George Floyd, of Breonna Taylor, Tony Robinson, Dontre Hamilton, Ernest Lacy, and Sylville Smith. And we stand against excessive use of force and immediate escalation when engaging with Black Wisconsinites.

I have said all along that although we must offer our empathy, equally important is our action. In the coming days, we will demand just that of elected officials in our state who have failed to recognize the racism in our state and our country for far too long.”

Immediately putting this shooting in the conversation with people who’ve been “mercilessly killed” by police probably wasn’t wise. And it’s fine to stand against excessive use of force but this is a statement about a shooting where the facts weren’t clear yet. In fact, it was weeks before the press and Blake’s attorney admitted that he had been armed with a knife during the confrontation and not an “unarmed black man” as many initially reported. The video of the shooting undoubtedly had a lot more to do with the rioting than Gov. Evers’ statement but I don’t think the statement, which seemed to confirm the worst interpretation of the shooting, helped. Maybe he should be held accountable for that by residents who suffered the consequences.