Are we headed for a rail strike after all?

(AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

A month ago it seemed we were headed for a major rail strike as unions were holding out against a labor contract that included a 24% raise. Amtrak even started canceling trains in expectation of the strike but then, at the last moment, unions accepted a deal.

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The tentative deal — confirmed by a group representing freight rail operators — still faces several steps before it is formally ratified. The unions must still vote on it, but the White House’s blessing of the new terms suggests that the worker groups have been closely involved. Often, the next step of the process can take several weeks, but during that time, union members agree not to strike.

The deal includes new leave policies, a significant concession by train carriers to workers who had demanded greater flexibility to be able to miss work for medical emergencies without being fired or punished, according to two people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe details of the negotiation not yet released.

But today it looks like that agreement might be falling apart. One of the unions has rejected the deal.

A union of railroad track maintenance workers has rejected a tentative agreement with the nation’s freight carriers, renewing the threat that there could be a strike that shuts down this vital link in the nation’s already struggling supply chain.

The vote, announced Monday by the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes Division, was 43% in favor of the proposed five-year contract, and 57% opposed…

The BWME said it will now enter negotiations with the association that represents management at the nation’s major freight railroads in an effort to reach a new deal. Without a new deal there could be a strike, but not until at least Nov. 19, according to the union. Things will remain status quo with the union’s contract until then.

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There are two larger unions who are holding their own vote on the contract by mail. However, even if they vote to approve the contract, they won’t return to work so long as the BMWE refuses to do so. More to the point, a professor who specializes in labor issues says the BMWE vote probably means the other unions will also be against the deal.

“I think this is the canary in the coal mine for the engineers’ and conductors’ votes,” said Todd Vanchon, professor of labor studies at Rutgers University. “They were the ones you anticipate would reject a deal. The fact that the BMWE voted no suggests a no vote [by train crew members] is more likely.”

A strike would be a potential disaster for the economy and a political disaster for the Biden administration which was involved in the deal reached last month. Luckily for the White House, whatever happens won’t happen until after the election. Part of me wonders if this wasn’t the deal all along, i.e. you can still vote to reject this but do hold out so whatever happens will happen after the election when it won’t be another millstone around the necks of pro-union Democrats.

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Maybe that’s too cynical but it’s hard to put anything past an administration that does stuff like this.

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