Monday we had reports that a pro-Kremlin news outlet had, perhaps accidentally, published figures for actual troop losses in Ukraine. Adding to the credibility of those numbers was the fact that soon after they were reported the site went down. In addition to that report there was also a report about a Russian military audio intercept released by Ukraine which claimed even higher losses. Was the intercept real or part of a Ukrainian disinformation campaign? That’s uncertain, but the numbers from the two sources weren’t that far apart.

In the last 24 hours there have been a series of reports based on a briefing by an unnamed US defense official Tuesday morning. Allahpundit wrote about the big takeaway from that briefing yesterday, i.e. that Ukraine may be in a position to take back some lost territory. He also mentioned reports that Russian soldiers are dealing with frostbite and low morale. Here’s a twitter thread about the same briefing by Washington Post military beat reporter Dan Lamothe.

A background briefing with a senior U.S. defense official about the Russian war on Ukraine just concluded. It’s Day 27 since the Russian invasion.

Here are some takeaways:

— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) March 22, 2022

I’m skipping over a bunch of tweets here, but here’s the discussion of Ukraine retaking territory.

As reported elsewhere, there is a Ukrainian effort afoot to retake terrain they had lost to Russia. Pentagon isn’t commenting on specific locations, but senior defense official says “we’re starting to see indications” that Ukraine is “now able and willing to take back territory.”

— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) March 22, 2022

And at the very end of the briefing was the mention of frostbite and low morale.

Continued morale issues among Russian soldiers seen, senior defense official says.

In addition to food and fuel shortages, the Pentagon now observes frostbite as an issue.

— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) March 22, 2022

Newsweek has more including a quote from the unnamed Pentagon source:

A Pentagon official told reporters on Tuesday morning that the U.S. had received evidence of frostbite among the Russian servicemen, who lacked appropriate gear.

“Even in terms of personal equipment for some of their troops, they’re having trouble and we’ve picked up indications that some troops have suffered and [have been] taken out of the fight because of frostbite,” the senior official said.

In keeping with that briefing, last night the Chief Technology Officer of CrowdStrike created a thread based on another alleged Russian intercept. According to his description of what’s being said, it painted a grim picture of the ongoing invasion including frostbite and a lack of basic items such as tents, medical supplies and stoves.

– One column was hit with Grad rockets. Can’t even figure out if it was friendly fire
– Medics only have bandages. Can’t help with frostbite
– No hot stove
– Digging trenched to sleep in
– Commander of 49th CAA told troops on 4th day that war will be over in hours

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) March 23, 2022

– TV says we are moving forward. But we just drive through without clearing up villages. And now we have to defend from all sides because they are attacking everywhere
– They thought this would be like a parade ride
– Our task was to get to Mykolaiv. And we are sitting here

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) March 23, 2022

There are several ways to look at this. The first is that the report must be fake because it’s not conceivable that Russia’s army isn’t prepared for cold weather. That does seem hard to believe at first glance, but another possibility is that so much money has been skimmed from the military budget that basic items like stoves and proper medical gear was never really purchased. Maybe that money went somewhere else and we’re only just learning about it now.

Or maybe the supplies were purchased but the Russian supply lines are so badly disrupted that they can’t get anything to soldiers further toward the front. On that point, there’s a new story out today with Ukrainian commanders claiming Russian soldiers will be out of supplies. including ammunition. within three days.

Russian forces have only three further days of fuel, food and ammunition left to conduct the war after a breakdown in their supply chains, Ukrainian military commanders have alleged.

The claims of major shortages were described as “plausible” by western officials although they said they were unable to corroborate the analysis.

But there’s another explanation that makes sense of the frostbite situation. In fact, this former Obama official (he worked at HUD but now runs a national security PR firm) says he predicted this would happen and that it all has to do with Russia’s inability to gain control of the skies.

On the Russian frostbite thing, it's not simply because they don't have proper cold weather gear. The frostbite was not only predictable, but it's directly related to Russia's inability to gain and maintain air superiority in the first few days.

— Brandon Friedman (@BFriedmanDC) March 23, 2022

But neither is an option when you don't have air superiority. With Ukrainian drones still attacking, now you can't sleep in your vehicle. Because it could blow up at any time. Now you have to get out, trudge through the frozen mud and dig a hole in the woods a safe distance away.

— Brandon Friedman (@BFriedmanDC) March 23, 2022

Given what has been happening to Russian tanks thanks to British NLAWs and US Javelins, would you be able to fall asleep in a non-moving tank? So the alternative is to dig a ditch outside.

All-in-all, it's a miserable experience the Russians brought on themselves and, barring chemical weapons, nuclear weapons or a miracle, they're going to lose to the Western-supplied Ukrainian army.

— Brandon Friedman (@BFriedmanDC) March 23, 2022

Is all of this reporting accurate or is it a carefully orchestrated disinformation campaign? I don’t know but here’s the alleged intercept mentioned above with English subtitles. The Russian sums up his situation of his unit by saying, “It’s all FUBAR in a nutshell.” If this is a real intercept then the Russian army must be nearing the point of collapse.