With 29 House Democrats not running for office this year, President Biden’s approval ratings stuck in the low 40s and polling showing a majority of voters feel the country is headed in the wrong direction, most experts believe Democrats are headed for a shellacking this November. But the Lincoln Project has published an op-ed arguing that Democrats should feel optimistic. Author Joe Trippi offers five reasons to think they could still win later this year.

Here are some thoughts on why I and my Lincoln Party comrades believe there is hope for democracy and her allies this fall.

1. Redistricting is Largely a Draw

Last fall, redistricting experts predicted that the Republican Party, given its use of extreme gerrymandering, would start the 2022 cycle up 12-14 seats. Now that redistricting has concluded in most states (save those with active legal challenges) it appears that the process will in fact be a wash.

He’s right about redistricting not favoring the GOP as much as anticipated but that doesn’t change the fact that this is looking like a tough year for Democrats. As mentioned above, the fact that most voters are dissatisfied with the party in power is a classic sign things will not go well for Democrats who only hold a margin of a few seats in the House and can’t afford to lose any in the Senate. That means that for Democrats to do well this fall, the situation will have to change pretty dramatically. Here again, Trippi argues it could happen.

3. Externalities Will Provide Opportunities

Millions of Americans have left their jobs. Covid-19’s Omicron variant is running rampant across the country and the world. The stock market is volatile. We’re on the verge of a European land war. These are the headlines we hear every day. However, if Covid recedes, people go back to work, public education stabilizes, and Russia relents, these externalities could prove beneficial to pro-democracy candidates in the fall. While President Joe Biden and his administration deal with multiple once-in-a-presidency crises, the Republican Party will continue its efforts to drive wedges into the electorate on cultural and social issues and spread chaos and fear in states they control. Ironically, in the realm of international affairs, Biden has returned the United States to its place as a beacon of democracy. If Trump were still in office, Ukraine would be a parking lot by now.

I think he’s right that some of the dissatisfaction will ease as things go back to normal. Those paying close attention will know that the push to resume something like normal life came not from the White House but from people on the right and left who’d grown sick of mask mandates and remote learning. So, yes, people may feel less irritated if things return to normal but I’m not sure Biden or his party will be credited for that since they have largely been on the other side of that debate, i.e. strict CDC guidance and siding with teacher’s unions.

Yes, the stock market is volatile but that’s likely because the Fed has signaled plans to raise interest rates three times this year, starting as soon as March. Assuming that’s all going to be smooth sailing by November seems very optimistic. It could happen but it could also send the market into a months of stagnation.

Finally, given what we saw happen in Afghanistan and the fallout from that debacle, it seems very optimistic indeed to assume the situation in Ukraine will just go away. Putin has been pushing this since last April. He could wrap it up and go home tomorrow but the Biden administration apparently believes he’s likely to do something, possibly even a full-scale invasion. So, while it’s possible this could all be cleared up by November, it’s also possible this becomes another foreign policy disaster the administration can’t spin its way out of.

And all of that ignores inflation, the border crisis, rising violent crime and the lingering hangover from attempts to defund the police. Even if everything Trippi mentions goes Democrats’ way, the things he didn’t mentioned could still be enough to sink them.

4. Democrats Still Have Time to Coalesce

The hour is late, but not too late, for Democrats to unite behind a broad pro-democracy message. Campaign 2022 is about democracy first, second, and always. The policy prescriptions may test well in surveys and focus groups, but they will not energize voters – Democrat, Independent, and Republican, to turn out on behalf of the only pro-democracy party we have left.

This talking point isn’t working now and didn’t work in Virginia. Maybe if Trump were on the ballot in November, it would galvanize Democrats. But running against Trump isn’t much of a message is House districts where people are sick of the Biden administration.

I generally try not to make predictions about electoral outcomes because the people making them often wind up looking like fools (see 2016 or House races in 2020). So even though predicting doom for Democrats seems like a gimme at this point, I’ll refrain from saying it’s a certainty. The fact is, none of us knows for sure what will happen between now and November. It could be a police shooting or it could be more police officers being shot. There could be a massive earthquake, an invasion of Ukraine, an inflation spike or an unexpected death among the elderly members of either party, a scandal that’s not on anyone’s radar right now. Any of those things and 20 others we haven’t considered could happen this year. By November, the Biden administration could be in a much better position but it could also be in a much worse one in about 10 different ways.

If Trippi and his “comrades” want to hope for the best for the Democratic Party, well that’s literally their business now. But given how things have gone the past two years, it feels to me like the the Lincoln Project is betting on still winds in the midst of hurricane season.