As Biden's approval hits a new low, Roll Call warns a red wave is possible in the Senate

AP Photo/Susan Walsh

There’s a new Quinnipiac poll out today and the news is not good for Joe Biden.

Americans give President Joe Biden a negative 33 – 53 percent job approval rating, while 13 percent did not offer an opinion. In November 2021, Americans gave Biden a negative 36 – 53 percent job approval rating with 10 percent not offering an opinion.

Among Democrats in today’s poll, 75 percent approve, 14 percent disapprove and 11 percent did not offer an opinion.

In a November poll, 87% of Democrats approved and just 7 percent disapproved. Clearly, Joe Biden is not the comeback kid. Over at National Review, Charles Cooke says the poll looks like an outlier but one that seems to have not a bit of good news for Biden:

There are no bright spots on the issues. On the economy, his approve-disapprove is 34-57; on foreign policy, it’s 35-54; on COVID, it’s 39-55. There is no bright spot for Biden on what he considers his sweet spot: “a plurality, 49 percent, say Biden is doing more to divide the country while 42 percent say he’s doing more to unite the country.” And nor do Americans think things are improving. 54 percent say that the economy is getting “worse”; 30 percent say it’s “staying about the same”; and 15 percent say it’s “getting better.”

The 15% who think the economy is improving might reassess after they see the latest inflation numbers. As for whether Biden is uniting or divining the country, it’s hard to imagine anyone saying the former after listening to that speech in Georgia yesterday, the one in which he compared opponents of the Democratic voting bill to George Wallace, Bull Connor and Jefferson Davis. As Mitch McConnell pointed out, if Biden had any mandate it was to unify the country and now it looks like he’s given up on that as well in favor of throwing partisan bombs.

But this isn’t just bad news for the president. As Stuart Rothenberg argues today at Roll Call, having Biden’s approval rating in the dumpster means there’s a real possibility of a red wave in the Senate in 2024.

while some Democrats worry that carving out an exception to the filibuster might set a bad precedent, the imbalance in the three Senate classes, which I wrote about in May, may give Republicans a chance at a filibuster-proof majority during the 2024 elections, when the Senate map strongly favors the GOP.

Of course, when I noted that, President Joe Biden’s job approval was sitting in the low-to-mid 50s, while his disapproval was about 10 points lower.

Now, those numbers have reversed…

So, circumstances look dramatically more challenging for the Democrats now than they did last spring.

Democrats seem to be stuck in a rather unenviable loop at this point. There is objectively bad news on a number of fronts and that bad news drives Biden’s approval ratings underwater. Lower approval ratings puts additional pressure on elected members of congress to hold onto their seats. That additional pressure leaves Democrats feeling increasingly desperate about their chances of retaining power.

But Democrats mustn’t forget the iron law of dating, which also applies to winning over voters: Desperation is not attractive. The more flop-sweat you produce trying to win over voters by shouting about the end of democracy, the less appealing voters are likely to find you. This is how an objectively bad situation becomes an even worse one as the spiral of desperation continues. And if Democrats lose control of the House this November, as seems likely, they’ll be even more desperate as we head into the 2024 election.

All of this could change of course. Democrats are probably due for some kind of favorable break eventually and maybe that will make them a little more confident and a little less desperate but right now it’s not looking good. How low can Biden’s approval rating go? We may find out.