Several states are already considering following Texas' lead on SB8

AP Photo/Susan Walsh

It’s not actually true that Texas has ended Roe v Wade (or Planned Parenthood v Casey). As I pointed out here before the law went into effect the real threat to Roe comes in the form of Texas modeling “an approach that other states could emulate.” And that seems to be exactly what is happening. In the past 24 hours, other states have indicated they are exploring similar laws.

Gov. Noem of South Dakota said her office is reviewing it.

Arkansas State Senator Jason Rapert said he’s creating a new bill that mirrors SB8:

In Florida, the president of the state senate said he was working on a bill similar to the one in Texas:

Senate President Wilton Simpson, R-Trilby, triggered an uproar among pro-choice advocates Thursday when he told a Tampa radio station the Legislature is “already working on” a bill similar to the Texas measure.

That led some of the Legislature’s Democrats to voice their fears that the nation’s highest court gave GOP leadership the opening to roll back abortion rights in the Sunshine State, saying it’s something Republicans have wanted to do “for decades.”

Gov. Ron DeSantis said yesterday that he would consider supporting such a bill.

A Mississippi state senator said his state would consider a similar bill:

Mississippi State Senator Chris McDaniel told The Associated Press he would “absolutely” consider filing a similar abortion bill to match what was passed in Texas.

“I think most conservative states in the South will look at this inaction by the court and will see that as perhaps a chance to move on that issue,” he said.

In Indiana the state house speaker expressed support for a similar bill:

Indiana House Speaker Todd Huston said House Republicans are watching what’s happening in Texas after the Supreme Court denied the request to stop a new Texas law that bans abortions when a fetal heartbeat is detected, which can happen at six weeks…

“We’re closely watching what’s happening in Texas in regards to their new pro-life law, including any legal challenges,” Huston said in a statement Thursday. “Indiana is one of the most pro-life states in the country, and we’ll continue to examine ways to further protect life at all stages.”

No doubt there are more states where this is being watched closely even if plans to put forward a similar bill haven’t made news yet.

My own take is that it’s still possible the Texas bill is going to backfire if only because there are so many Democrats around the country who are desperate to make it backfire. Pro-abortion TikTok users have already been flooding an online tip site in an effort to crash it.

On top of these efforts you can bet that the national media which is probably 95% pro-abortion will help the Democrats turn this into a positive for 2022. Simply put, both sides in this cultural forever war are too invested to admit defeat, at least for now. Texas has shaken up this 48-year-old stalemate but this isn’t over yet. The pro-abortion empire will strike back.

The Supreme Court has already agreed to hear a case which will allow it to potentially rewrite abortion law in a significant way. Democrats can shout about that all they want but the only thing they can actually do to stop it is what AOC and others demanded this week: pack the supreme court with four new progressives. The far left is ready to go with that plan but I’m not sure they can convince the moderates who spent the last four years moaning about norms to go along.

I do think it’s likely we’re going to see a new normal on abortion fairly soon, possibly one that puts the US more in line with abortion laws that exist in most of Europe, but we’re not there yet.