Update 12:08 am ET: Just 24% of the California vote is counted at this point. Current results from the NY Times.
Update 11:01 pm ET: Fox News calls California for Sanders and here’s the call from the AP as well.
BREAKING: Bernie Sanders wins Democratic presidential primary in California, claiming biggest prize on Super Tuesday. https://t.co/FZHkka7C1w
— The Associated Press (@AP) March 4, 2020
Update 10:30 pm ET: Sanders wins Utah.
BREAKING: Sen. Bernie Sanders wins Utah Democratic Primary, NBC News projects. https://t.co/zt8BBZiDiF pic.twitter.com/F50HO2VbTr
— NBC News (@NBCNews) March 4, 2020
With 62% of the vote in, NBC has Sanders at 31.5% followed by Bloomberg (19%), Warren (15.3%), Buttigieg (13.9%), and Joe Biden in 5th place at 12.8 percent.
Thank you Utah! https://t.co/S7XXSCUNLJ
— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) March 4, 2020
Update 9:43 pm ET: Sanders has won Colorado.
Bernie Sanders wins the Colorado Democratic presidential primary, his second victory on a Super Tuesday that has seen Joe Biden win a trio of Southern states. https://t.co/f3y6VnAzO8
— The Associated Press (@AP) March 4, 2020
With 77% of the vote in, NBC News reports Sanders has 36.3%, Bloomberg is 2nd with 23.5%, and Biden is 3rd with 20.5%.
Why wasn’t there a Biden surge in Colorado? Probably because of early voting:
No surprise that the Biden surge came to a halt in Colorado: it's the state where advance vote made up the largest share of the likely electorate–60 percent returned by SC, by our estimates
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) March 4, 2020
California is the big prize today with 415 delegates. It’s also the state that, as of last week, was expected to be a blowout for Bernie Sanders. Last Friday the LA Times reported he held a 2-1 lead in the state. Joe Biden’s numbers were down into single digits in the same poll. And that wasn’t the only poll showing Sanders with a commanding lead in the state. Glenn Greenwald highlighted this USA Today poll:
“Sanders holds a commanding double-digit lead on the cusp of California's Dem primary, a new Suffolk University/USA TODAY statewide poll finds”: likely to win most if not all of delegates, making "it much more difficult for other candidates to catch up” https://t.co/FPnrChfQiS pic.twitter.com/xj6sd5ccwK
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) March 2, 2020
But a lot has happened since both of those polls were taken. Joe Biden had a big win in South Carolina and Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar both dropped out and endorsed Biden. Suddenly, it looks like Biden could pull out a reasonably strong second place in California instead of 3rd or 4th place:
California primary poll averages:
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) March 2, 2020
The RCP average shows Sanders winning over Biden by 12 points. So if Biden does worse than that it might be a bad night for him and if he does better than that he’s having a pretty good night.
This Decision Desk widget will automatically update with results once the polls close. Because a lot of Californians vote by mail we won’t have final results tonight or even this week. Still we should get an idea of how things are going once polls close at 11 pm ET.
Colorado polling looks a lot like polling in California. As of last week, Sanders was in the mid-thirties with his closest competitor (Elizabeth Warren) somewhere between 11-20 points behind. But once again, those polls were taken before South Carolina so there’s no telling what impact that might have. Also, early voting has been open in Colorado since last Monday so some of the people who might have been impacted by the late Buttigieg/Klobuchar endorsements of Biden have already cast their votes. The last polling published today showed Biden surging into a statistical tie with Warren. There are 67 delegates at stake. Polls close in Colorado at 9 pm ET.
Utah has just 29 delegates and there hasn’t been a lot of polling in the state. RCP shows just three polls but they do, perhaps, indicate a late surge for Biden. Last month Sanders was in the high 20s with Biden 15 points behind. But a Data for Progress poll completed Monday shows Biden surging to within 6 points of Sanders. And even that poll started before South Carolina’s results, so it’s possible we’re still not seeing the full extent of the swing toward Biden in the last few days. Polls close in Utah at 10 pm ET.
I’ll update this post throughout the night.
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