Blue wave collapsing? Early voting shows GOP outpacing Dems in key states

This looks like another sign that the highly-anticipated blue wave could disappoint next month if it arrives at all. NBC News has looked at early voting data (provided by a company called TargetSmart) in eight states and found that GOP-affiliated voters are outpacing Democratic voters in seven of those.

GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, the data showed.

Only in Nevada have Democratic-affiliated voters exceeded Republican-affiliated voters so far in early voting, according to the data…

The latest data suggests robust enthusiasm among early Republican voters that could put a dent in Democratic hopes for a “blue wave” in next month’s midterm elections.

Republicans typically dominate early voting by absentee ballots, while Democrats tend to have the advantage with in-person early voting. So, for example, the entire early voting picture in Florida, which has yet to begin in-person voting, is incomplete.

That last point is the key one. It’s not just that the GOP is outpacing Dems in these states it’s that early voting almost always favors Dems. The usual pattern is for Dems to run up a lead in early voting which the GOP has to overcome on election day. But that’s not what we’re seeing here. Here’s NBC’s graph of where things stand:

In Nevada, the one state where Dems hold a lead in early voting, it’s worth noting that it’s the second smallest lead on the chart. Ed also has a post coming up shortly on the situation in Nevada which you should look out for. Suffice it to say it’s not looking like a disaster for the GOP at this moment.

If you want to splash some cold water on yourself to prevent getting carried away with all of this, FiveThirtyEight is still predicting it is overwhelmingly likely Democrats take the House. Of course, that could shift in the next two weeks. Maybe we’re beginning to see that shift in those numbers above.

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Jazz Shaw 7:31 PM on October 02, 2022