Jazz mentioned the I-word this morning. There’s certainly plenty of people on the left speculating (and hoping) that’s in the president’s future. But Politico reports Nancy Pelosi’s leadership team is still advising people not to go there:

Speaking to members back home in their districts, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s leadership team Tuesday cautioned lawmakers to frame Cohen’s plea deal as further evidence of a corrupt administration that needs a Democratic check in Congress, they said. Or, play up Hill Republicans’ apathy in the face of Trump’s endless scandals, they encouraged.

But be wary of impeachment, they insisted — it could backfire…

“Everybody wants to jump to the end of the analysis, which is impeachment, but I think we’ve got to take it step by step here,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), a former law professor who sits on the House Judiciary Committee. “I know all of the questions of impeachment are fascinating to the media, but we’re working full-time just to try to put the Democrats back on the scoreboard of national politics.”

A House Democrat close with leadership put it bluntly: “The voters don’t want to talk about impeachment right now. … You don’t want to poke the bear in a way that he’s able to come back even stronger.”

Pelosi herself gave a statement to the Associated Press:

Democratic leader Rep. Nancy Pelosi said that unless other information emerges, impeaching Trump is “not a priority” for Democrats if they regain control of the House this fall. Pelosi said she prefers to see Democrats work to ensure special counsel Robert Mueller can finish his investigation.

“If and when the information emerges about that, we’ll see,” Pelosi said Tuesday as the news about Cohen was unfolding.

All of this careful tip-toeing around the I-word stems from a clear sense that if Democrats go all in on this now, it will hurt them in November. Buzzfeed reports on what some Democrats and their paid strategists are saying:

“I’m not convinced the Cohen or Manafort stuff is going to be moving the dial much,” said one Democratic campaign strategist, who said his candidate, in a close House race, had no plans to mention the word “impeachment.”

“Most campaigns are seeing that whether we like it or not, the Russia issue is not the winning one for us in November,” the campaign strategist said…

“I think it’s completely unhelpful,” said another national strategist of impeachment talk. “We need to stay laser-focused on economic issues.”

This is actually a smart strategy on the part of Pelosi and the Democrats who follow her lead. I think there’s a better than even chance they’ll pursue impeachment the moment Mueller wraps up his investigation, no matter what it says. But talking about it now is just poking the bear. The best thing they have going for them is the anti-Trump enthusiasm. Getting the right riled up would only even the playing field (something which may be happening anyway).

The problem, of course, is that the base doesn’t want to play this safe and smart. MoveOn and Tom Steyer and Maxine Waters don’t want to hold their fire, they want Trump gone ASAP. The fact that pushing for that now would hurt their chances of taking the House doesn’t matter to the zealots because…they’re zealots. So keep an eye on Pelosi. We’ll see if she can keep a lid on the base for another two and a half months or if the base simply refuses to be managed in this case.