ISIS claimed credit for the attack in Las Vegas Monday, however, an FBI agent involved in the investigation said there is no evidence of a connection to terrorism at this point. NY Times correspondent Rukmini Callimachi says it’s not true that ISIS claims responsibility for every attack, but she has her doubts about the accuracy of this claim:

1. ISIS has issued back-to-back claims on their Amaq News Agency claiming responsibility for the heinous violence in Las Vegas: pic.twitter.com/DfmG0wLADA

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 2, 2017

3. But given what we know already about the shooter, I'm wondering if this is 1 of their major misses

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 2, 2017

5. People who have watched my timeline know that I have long argued against the "ISIS claims everything trope." It's simply not true

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 2, 2017

7. But it's also the case that ISIS has had two major mistakes in recent months. This summer, they claimed an attack on a resort in Manila

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 2, 2017

9. As @AmarAmarasingam recently pointed out, perhaps they are getting sloppier as a result of the heavy losses they are facing.

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 2, 2017

10. To know whether this was ISIS-inspired, I'm waiting to hear what police find on the shooter's phone. Was he on ISIS Telegram channels? pic.twitter.com/pcqIVNJAio

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 2, 2017

12. ISIS is tripling down on its claim. The group has issued a communique where they identify shooter with nom de guerre Abu Abd El Bar pic.twitter.com/o4aYQjBWzI

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 2, 2017

Rita Katz, Director of SITE Intelligence Group, also has a thread on the ISIS claim. She says ISIS is doubling down on this claim but still providing no evidence:

3) Given what is known of attacker Stephen Paddock, #ISIS needs evidence. Otherwise, might make ISIS appear (more) desperate for claims

— Rita Katz (@Rita_Katz) October 2, 2017

5) Prior to claim, #ISIS supporters didn't suspect connection to group,but ISIS linked Aswirati Media was already posting celebratory images pic.twitter.com/3XTeWb4yoD

— Rita Katz (@Rita_Katz) October 2, 2017

7) #ISIS appears to be doubling down on its claim for #LasVegas as Amaq statements being further disseminated in different languages. pic.twitter.com/ecTVGjvclM

— Rita Katz (@Rita_Katz) October 2, 2017

9) Of all #ISIS claims of attacks, #LasVegasShooting is the strangest. Such attackers usually show indicators online ,travels, history, etc

— Rita Katz (@Rita_Katz) October 2, 2017

11) In neither case, however, did #ISIS provide proof. #OrlandoShooting claim came hours after media reported Mateen's #ISIS / #AQ pledge

— Rita Katz (@Rita_Katz) October 2, 2017

13) #BREAKING: #ISIS issues official communique on #LasVegas attack, identifying Paddock as "Abu Abd Abdulbar al-Ameriki" pic.twitter.com/lqHmY2BLgC

— Rita Katz (@Rita_Katz) October 2, 2017

15) ISIS gives unverifiable (as of yet) narrative: Paddock, responding to Baghdadi's incitements, did "precise" surveillance of venue prior

— Rita Katz (@Rita_Katz) October 2, 2017

So ISIS is definitely claiming this but still offering nothing in the way of proof. The translation of the most recent statement is behind SITE’s paywall but it appears they are claiming this was inspired by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s call for more attacks made in an audio statement released last week. This was the first time in 10 months that anyone had heard from Baghdadi.

At the Atlantic, author Graeme Wood also says ISIS does not claim credit for every attack. However, he notes that the group recently made similar claims of responsibility for another attack which appears to have been a lie:

They have offered no evidence—no cell-phone video from the killer, pledging allegiance in broken Arabic; no selfies of him, raising a finger of monotheism. Another absent sign of Islamic State involvement is videos from Paddock’s rifle-scope. At attacks like the Holey Bakery in Dhaka, Bangladesh, the killers have uploaded real-time images, exclusive and corroborating imagery for Amaq. As with many subsequently verified attacks, we have not yet, in these early hours, seen any such evidence.

If their claim is a rare false one, it will not even be the first false claim to feature a casino. In June, a gambling addict shot up and torched the Resorts World casino in Manila, Philippines. The Islamic State claimed credit, with a dubious follow-up alleging that Jessie Javier Carlos, 42, converted to Islam some months before, without telling anyone. That explanation appears to be a total lie. A false claim of credit in Las Vegas will effectively shred the Islamic State’s news agency’s credibility. It will become a news agency that was once reliable, and now associates itself indiscriminately with heavily armed crazy people in casinos.

However, FBI Special Agent Aaron Rouse said at a press conference today that there is no evidence “to this point” the shooter had a connection to terrorism.

The police have searched the shooter’s home but Sherriff Joseph Lombardo said he was “not aware of any derogatory information that we can utilize in furtherance of the investigation at this point.”

When someone commits an act with a terrorist motivation, they usually want the world to know. Omar Mateen, the Pulse nightclub shooter, made 911 calls in which he pledged allegiance to ISIS, knowing those calls would be recorded and, eventually, shared. So if this really is ISIS-inspired it seems odd that Paddock didn’t leave a note or a video or something making clear his motive. Maybe something will turn up but so far ISIS’ claim is unsupported.