Clinton takes the lead in latest Fox News poll

A Fox News poll released Thursday shows Donald Trump has lost some support in a match-up against Hillary Clinton. Clinton now leads Trump by 3 points, 42% to 39 percent.

The last Fox News poll, taken in May, showed Trump leading Clinton by three points, 45% to 42 percent. So while Clinton’s numbers have stayed the same in the current survey, Trump has dropped off by six points.

The latest poll was taken between Sunday and Wednesday, so at least some respondents were probably aware of Hillary Clinton clinching the nomination (which the AP announced Monday night).

The obvious question is whether Trump’s slide had anything to do with the recent controversy over his comments about Judge Curiel. That has been a dominant story for the past week with various Republicans including Paul Ryan and Scott Walker criticizing the comments.

One difference between the latest poll and the poll from last month is that Clinton’s favorability is up while Trump’s favorability is down a bit. The current poll has Hillary 14 points underwater, 42% favorable to 56% unfavorable. That’s not good but it’s much better than May when she was at 37% favorable to 61% unfavorable, 24% underwater.

Trump is currently at 40% favorable to 58 percent unfavorable. Last month he was 41-56. So he went from 15 points underwater last month to 18 points this month.

Fox News reports on the demographic breakdown of each candidate’s support:

Clinton is ahead among blacks (+76), unmarried women (+34), women (+18), lower-income households (+14), and voters under age 30 (+13).

Trump is preferred among white evangelicals (+42), whites without a college degree (+25), whites (+16), men (+15), and independents (+5).

Fox News also notes neither side seems open to shifting their allegiance at this point though Democrats are a bit happier about it than Republicans:

Voters were asked if there is a chance their candidate “could say or do something” that would make them change their mind before Election Day.  More than 8-in-10 Clinton backers say there is no chance at all (57 percent) or only a small chance (24 percent).  Sentiment is almost identical for Trump supporters: 57 percent say no chance and 23 percent say just a small chance.

Voters may be committed to their candidate, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re happy about it.  Trump supporters are split between being happy to vote for him (51 percent) and holding their nose (48 percent).  Clinton backers are more upbeat:  60 percent happy vs. 37 percent holding their nose.

Overall it’s not clear what is driving Trump’s 6 point drop. But, as was the case last month, all of this is still within the margin of error for this poll.

David Strom 7:01 PM on September 24, 2022