Poll: Trump leads Cruz by 9 in Indiana

Donald Trump leads Ted Cruz in the critical Indiana primary by 9 points according to an America Research Group poll published Friday. The poll shows 41% of likely GOP primary voters in the state support Trump compared to 32% for Ted Cruz. John Kasich comes in third with 21 percent.

When the poll considers only the responses of self-reported Republicans, the gap dropped slightly to 8 points (42-34). Meanwhile, combined support from Independents and Democrats give Trump a double-digit lead, 38% to 28% for Cruz.

Trump’s advantage was a little better with older voters. Among those over 50-years-old he won by 10 points, 42-32. With those aged 18-49, Trump tops Cruz by 7 points, 39-32.

Finally there was a definite gender gap in the results. Among men, Trump leads Cruz by double-digits, 45-32. With women Trump still leads Cruz but by a smaller 36-32. The margin of error for the poll is 5 percent.

The Indiana primary will take place Tuesday May 3rd. Ted Cruz has pulled out all the stops for a win, including his decision to name Carly Fiorina as a “running mate” months before the convention. A win in Indiana would be a big boost for Trump and make it more likely he could get the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination and avoid a contested convention.

Addendum: Someone reminds me on Twitter that ARG has been pretty far off the mark in a couple of previous polls. In Wisconsin, an ARG poll said Trump was up 10. The actual final result was Cruz by 13. Also in Texas, ARG said the race was Cruz by 1 point. The final result was Cruz by 17. The current RCP average of polls for Indiana has Trump at +5.3, that’s without this ARG poll.