A poll of likely New Hampshire voters conducted by WMUR and the University of New Hampshire finds Hillary Clinton with big double-digit leads over both Donald Trump and Ted Cruz in head-to-head general election matchups. A press release for the poll reads:
If the 2016 presidential election was held today and the candidates were Clinton and Trump, 50% of likely New Hampshire voters say they would vote for Clinton, 31% would vote for Trump, 15% would support another candidate and 4% are undecided. Clinton does better among Democrats (83% to 4%) than Trump does among Republicans (68% to 13%), while Independents are divided (33% for Clinton and 31% for Trump). Support among men for Trump has dissipated in recent months as men currently favor Clinton 42% to 40% while Clinton leads 57% to 23% among women. Support for Trump has decreased 8 percentage points since February.
If the candidates were Clinton and Cruz, 48% of likely New Hampshire voters say they would vote for Clinton, 34% would vote for Cruz, 15% would support another candidate and 3% are undecided. Clinton leads among Democrats 83% to 4%, Cruz leads 71% to 7% among Republicans and Independents lean towards Cruz by 42% to 32%. Similar to her matchup against Trump, Clinton essentially tied among men (42% to 39%) but leads by double digits among women (53% to 29%). A Cruz – Clinton race has stayed steady since February.
So Trump loses by 19 points while Cruz loses by fourteen. Both results are well outside the 3.9% margin of error. The only GOP candidate who beats Clinton in a matchup is Kasich. He wins with 50% to 36% for Clinton.
Matchups with Sanders as the Democratic nominee have similar results except that Cruz loses by 31 points (61-30) while Trump loses by 27 (58-31). Finally, Sanders beats Kasich narrowly by 50% to 44 percent.
The results of all of these matchups seem to boil down to net favorability (as they always seem to do). The poll found Sanders and Kasich are the only remaining candidates with net positive favorability while Trump, Cruz and Clinton are all in net negative territory. This graph from the press release shows the favorability (in blue) for each candidate as well as the unfavorable numbers (in red):
The poll did identify one thing that both parties agree on: Nearly 80% of Democrats and just over 90% of Republicans say the political climate is worse than it was 20 years ago: