There has recently been a decided shift in the political winds in Canada over the past few years. The Canadians held another by-election this week covering several former Liberal Party strongholds including LaSalle-Emard-Verdun Monday in Montreal. Justin Trudeau's formerly ruling Liberal Party had easily held the district in 2021, but now the conservative Bloc Quebecois took and held the lead in a relatively tight three-way race. This represents the second time in a row that the conservatives have surged ahead in these by-elections as the parties scramble in preparation for the upcoming federal elections roughly one year from now. Trudeau had little to say about the results aside from noting that it obviously "would have been nicer to be able to win." (Associated Press)
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Tuesday he’s focused on the work ahead after the ruling Liberals lost in another by-election, raising more questions about his ability to lead the party into the next federal election.
For the second time in recent months the Liberals lost in a former stronghold when the Bloc Quebecois won the vote in the electoral district of LaSalle-Emard-Verdun Monday in Montreal in a tight three-way race with the New Democratic Party.
“Obviously it would have been nicer to be able to win . . . but there’s more work to do,” Trudeau said in Ottawa.
One of Trudeau's long-time supporters was quoted describing the results as, "yet another nail in Justin Trudeau’s coffin.” Others speculated that Trudeau might consider stepping down at this point because of the obvious drop in support that his party and their policies have received. Others countered that it's not in Trudeau's character to admit defeat and step aside, preferring instead to go down with the ship.
Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne appeared resigned to that outcome while noting that there is "concern, there’s anxiety” among Canadian voters. Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the conservatives has another idea that might remove the choice from Trudeau's hands altogether. He said yesterday that he plans to seek a non-confidence motion at the earliest opportunity. That's something of a risky move, but if Trudeau were to lose a vote of no confidence, he would be forced to step aside. The federal elections are tentatively scheduled for October of 2025, but given Canada's unusual election laws, that vote could be moved up to an earlier date if it appears that the current government is no longer sufficiently stable.
This entire situation is more complicated than the typical political battles that take place in the United States. Canada doesn't have the same sort of red vs blue or right vs left battlefronts that we're used to seeing in America. There is a patchwork of up to five different parties, some of which remain largely on the sidelines when it comes to the federal government. For example, Bloc Quebecois carried quite a few votes in the latest elections, but they are really only active in Quebec for the most part and they focus on independence for their own province. Still, their votes carry the same amount of weight.
Canada in the modern era has traditionally been seen as a significantly more liberal country and that remains true to a certain extent even today. But you can only beat a horse so many times before it bucks. Many people were shocked to see the outpouring of support for the conservative Freedom Convoy truckers in Canada who had the audacity to tie up international traffic in support of their cause during the early post-pandemic era. That really should have been a red flag for Trudeau who was viewed in a more dictatorial light after cracking down on them and seizing their vehicles. The liberals had established a fairly solid majority and kept it together for a number of years. But once people get a taste of freedom, you never know what they might grow hungry for next. Perhaps that's a lesson that Justin Trudeau is about to learn the hard way.
