It seems like only yesterday (wait... it was just yesterday) when David brought us up to date on the latest chapter of the debacle of Boeing's first crewed mission to the International Space Station using their Starliner spaceship. And I use the word "debacle" here deliberately and without apology. We've been covering this saga here from the beginning and we were repeatedly assured that I was overplaying the problems that the Starliner was experiencing and everything would be just fine if we gave them time to work out whatever "bugs" had been encountered. The two stranded astronauts, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, were not "lost in space" and would be home soon, safe and sound. We just needed to be patient. But now, thanks to the massive software failure that David documented yesterday, NASA is saying that they may not be able to return until... (drumroll, please) February of 2025. That's right. The original eight-day mission may wind up lasting more than eight months, assuming the current issues can be corrected and a way can be found to bring them back safely. (NY Post)

The two astronauts who have already been stuck in space for more than 60 days may have to wait until early 2025 before they can return to Earth — following a trip to the International Space Station that was supposed to last just eight days.

NASA also acknowledged that the astronauts, who arrived on the maiden voyage of the Boeing Starliner spacecraft, may have to be rescued by the rival SpaceX CrewDragon, though that vessel won’t be ready until February.

On Wednesday, NASA announced another delay in bringing home Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams during a news conference, with the agency saying it’s now looking more closely at an alternative plan utilizing SpaceX’s Crew-9 mission.

If tests in the coming weeks suggest that making the trip home on Starliner proves too risky, Steve Stich, NASA’s Commercial Crew Program manager, said Wilmore and Williams would have no choice but to hop on Crew-9’s return flight in February 2025.

I'm not trying to claim to be any sort of mystical prognosticator here, but back on June 19, I was already questioning whether Boeing would be able to bring the astronauts back home safely at all. A lot of the press releases coming out at that time smelled of corporate propaganda but hinted at potentially more serious problems. One week later, on June 24, I first suggested that Elon Musk should probably start warming up a Crew Dragon to go rescue Butch and Suni. That idea was once again mocked. By July 27, I was calling for NASA to simply give Boeing the boot and send in Musk's Crew Dragon. He could readily get the job done.

But now, thanks to the software failure mentioned above, they can't even do that. They are unable to unhook the disabled Starliner from the ISS and kick it away safely even if they want to. And that's the only port that the Crew Dragon can dock at. The other problems Starliner had were caused by helium leaks and failing thrusters. Those are mechanical issues. This is a software problem. Can it be fixed remotely while the spaceship is locked to the ISS and crippled? Even if Musk sent a Crew Dragon up there tomorrow, what is he supposed to do if they can't open up the port for his ship to dock? We've gone way past may level of expertise here (which is basically zero), but how would you transfer astronauts from the ISS to a Crew Dragon parked nearby and get them into the capsule and ready for the flight home? That's sound very challenging at a minimum.

Boeing and NASA are still insisting that this might all be resolved. But they've been saying these things from the beginning. They're using phrases such as "if the return trip looks too risky." If you can't detach the Starliner from the ISS docking port, what "return trip" are you talking about? They're also claiming that the astronauts might have to wait until the next scheduled Crew Dragon mission in February because it "won't be ready" until then. Give me a break. Musk launches rockets so often that people don't even bother reporting UFOs over Texas anymore. He has giant craft soaring into space multiple times per week sometimes. If you needed him up there this month, I'd be willing to bet he'd figure out a way to get it done.

But getting Musk's rocket up there doesn't solve anything unless you can safely get Butch and Suni into it, into a compatible spacesuit, and prepared for reentry. Meanwhile, the supplies for all of the astronauts are being drained at a rate faster than had been planned. It's unclear to me if we can even send up unmanned resupply missions at this point until Boeing's hunk of junk can be cleared from the docking port. I have to agree with David at this point. Boeing can't be trusted. They shouldn't be allowed to have anything to do with NASA again until they can prove that they can at least get their terrestrial aircraft off the ground without the wheels falling off.