We wouldn't normally publish an article about the release of a new video series on the other side of the world, particularly when all that's actually been released so far is the trailer, but there is something interesting unfolding in Taiwan this month. During the same week that Taiwan scheduled its annual air raid drills, a theater in Taipei was previewing the trailer for a series called "Zero Day." It depicts the possible realities of how things might play out if China actually launches an invasion in the near future. It's a subject that is very much on the minds of many people in Taiwan and unfortunately, their prospects for being able to fend off the Chinese military do not appear encouraging. (The Guardian)

Last Wednesday as the streets of Taipei emptied and sirens wailed across town for Taiwan’s annual air raid drills, a crowd of journalists, actors and film crew, watched similar scenes play out on screen. The press event, inside a city theatre, was launching a new Taiwanese series, Zero Day, which depicts a Chinese invasion. Timing the launch with the air raid drill was a clever piece of theatrics, but it also emphasised the real-world implications of what both events were demonstrating – the worsening threat of China’s ruling Communist party making good on its promise to annex Taiwan.

The 17-minute Zero Day trailer released that day sparked debate and anxiety across Taiwan. Despite the threat of invasion looming for decades, there are few if any modern Taiwanese cultural examples that depict this aspect of its existence.

“The feeling that war is imminent is something that most people in peaceful countries find hard to relate to. In Taiwan, everyone thinks about it, but hardly ever talks about it,” the director, Lo Ging-zim, tells the Guardian in his Taipei studio.

The hypothetical Chinese attack depicted in Zero Day provides much food for thought. Rather than a full-blown military invasion of the island leading to massive casualties on both sides, it begins with a naval blockade around the island and the hacking of the financial system, which crashes. Communications are cut and satellite networks are disabled. Those who are able to begin to flee the island, which the Chinese allow provided they promise not to return. Beijing hacks into Taiwan's public communication systems and begins broadcasting propaganda urging the people to accept the “peaceful reunification of the motherland”. (You can watch the trailer here if your Taiwanese is a lot better than mine, but English subtitles are provided for most of the material.)

The scary part of all of this is that it might actually work in real life and it probably wouldn't take all that long. And even if it failed, the Chinese could always fall back on doing it "the hard way." Both the film's producers and many elected officials are making a serious effort to get people thinking about, talking about, and preparing for the possibility of war in whichever form it takes. The subject is on almost everyone's minds, but it appears that most Taiwanese would really prefer not to dwell on it if possible and they aren't doing much to substantially prepare to be ready to fight.

A couple of years ago a Taiwanese tech billionaire pledged two billion Taiwan dollars of his own money to train civilian militias and sharpshooters. Admirably, there have been some militias formed and training conducted. Unfortunately, the same can not be said for the effort to get sharpshooters prepared for an invasion. The reason? Taiwan's very strict gun control laws. They probably could have learned a thing or two from America about that.

Most military analysts seem to agree that China could probably subjugate Taiwan and bring it under the control of the CCP "without firing a shot." It might take a little while, but Beijing is nothing if not patient. In the event of a full military invasion, it's believed that geography plays in Taiwan's favor and with a full supply of United States weapons and technology, they could hold back the Chinese military, but only for a while. By themselves, Taiwan's military forces are simply not up to fending off the full brunt of the Chinese military any more than Ukraine was prepared to defeat Russia. It would depend on which countries - if any - might be willing to join the battle and fight the Chinese on behalf of Taiwan. At the moment, it doesn't sound as if any of them would unless the United States went in first, but our own foreign policy in the region says that we would not.

China knows all of this and they are watching the direction that the rest of the world takes closely. They very much want to fully retake Taiwan, but if they fear the backlash, particularly the economic impacts would be too damaging, they will probably continue to exercise restraint. If they sense weakness among Taiwan's allies, they may very well decide that the time has come to make their move.