Well, it would appear that the hoped-for peace deal with Russia is out the window. Or if not, it will be shortly. Seemingly out of the blue, Ukrainian officials announced that they had entered into talks yesterday about gaining membership in the European Union. The announcement came during a multinational conference in Luxembourg. This is obviously a development that the Kremlin doesn't want to hear in any fashion. The good news is that even the participants in these discussions agree that gaining approval for a Ukrainian application to join the EU would take years, assuming it's even possible. The bad news is that this is one of those infamous "red lines" that Vladimir Putin is always going on about. Even if he was considering putting an offer on the table for Zelensky that involved redrawing some of the borders, he may just walk away entirely now. (Associated Press)

The European Union on Tuesday launched membership talks with Ukraine, a decade after Russian troops seized the Crimean Peninsula to deter the country from moving closer to the West, part of a chain of events that set the two neighbors on the path to war.

Ukraine’s accession negotiations were set in motion at an intergovernmental conference in Luxembourg. Just a few hours later, Moldova also launched its membership talks. While the events are a major milestone on their European paths, the talks could take years to conclude.

In opening remarks presented via video-link, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal described it as “a historic day” that marks “a new chapter” in his country’s ties with the bloc, particularly as the war with Russia rages on.

Given the current state of affairs, it's difficult to understand why any members of the EU or anyone in the Ukrainian government would make such an announcement. I suppose it's possible that they think they're just calling Putin's bluff. But that assumption rests heavily on the idea that Vladimir Putin is actually bluffing and not a potentially unstable maniac with a flotilla of nuclear weapons. One of the original reasons Putin gave when he first invaded Ukraine during the Obama administration was that he didn't want to see Ukraine become more Westernized or closer to Europe and he opposed the further eastward expansion of NATO. Now NATO is on his borders, including in Finland, and he may be feeling like his back is against the wall. Keep in mind that earlier in the war Putin was making noises about moving some of his nukes around (which he went on to do) and reminding the world that his weapons could easily reach all of the capitals of the European nations.

Does that mean he would actually do it? Probably not, or at least I certainly hope not. Putin may be a madman, but he still realizes that if he takes out a major city in Europe he will be at war with all of NATO including the United States. (Assuming Joe Biden could be bothered to respond.) The bigger danger, at least as I see it, is that rather than "ending" the war in Ukraine, Putin could respond by deciding to "finish the war" in Ukraine. Russia could probably take the rest of the country, including Kyiv, at this point if they were willing to pay the cost. 

They failed to do that at the start of the war because the Russian army hadn't been in combat in ages. Their troops were inexperienced and their leaders fumbled badly attempting to move troops, vehicles, and supplies around as they rushed toward the capital in the West. Now they have a couple of years under their belts and the troops are far more battle-hardened. They have established solid supply lines and greatly expanded their offensive capabilities, particularly with drones, long-range missiles, and advanced glide rockets. They would lose a ton of troops making a run straight at Kyiv and the damage would be horrifying, but most analysts I've seen chiming in believe that Putin could pull it off if he was willing to endure the political blowback at home.

This seems like an indefensible point in time to open up public talks about Ukraine trying to join the EU. They are literally "poking the bear" (the Russian bear in this case) at a moment when they are unable to mount an effective counteroffensive and they are already losing territory in the east. For a brief moment recently, it sounded as if the Kremlin was willing to talk about ending the fighting if their demands were accommodated and most of Ukraine, particularly in the Western regions, would survive. Why is America not demonstrating any leadership in this situation? Ukraine relies almost entirely on us for their survival. The White House needs to put Zelensky on a leash and restore some calm to the situation.