It's no secret that tensions have been running high between China and the West, including with the United States. The situation around Taiwan is an ongoing sore point, as well as China's aggressive expansion into the South China Sea. This week, military leaders from around the world met at the Shangri-La Defense Forum, held in Singapore, and American Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met for an hour with his Chinese counterpart, Dong Jun. Austin came away from the meeting with a surprisingly confident tone, claiming that war with China is "neither imminent nor unavoidable." Dong Jun had less to say, and other nations didn't seem to be nearly as optimistic, particularly the Philippines, which has been engaged in saber-rattling with Beijing for a couple of years now. (Associated Press)

United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told a gathering of top security officials Saturday that war with China was neither imminent nor unavoidable, despite rapidly escalating tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, stressing the importance of renewed dialogue between him and his Chinese counterpart in avoiding “miscalculations and misunderstandings.”

Austin’s comments at the Shangri-La defense forum in Singapore came the day after he met for more than an hour on the sidelines with Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun, the first in-person meeting between the top defense officials since contacts between the American and Chinese militaries broke down in 2022 after then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, infuriating Beijing.

I wasn't feeling overly optimistic about this conference at the start. After all, Lloyd Austin is the same Secretary of Defense who couldn't be bothered to inform his deputy that he was going into the hospital for a week. But it's hard to fault him for the way he's handling the current situation. He's not claiming that all issues have been resolved and everyone should just get on with their lives. He's simply pointing out that a dialogue is taking place and the lines of communication are open. That's a more desirable situation than having two massive nuclear powers stonewalling each other and waiting to see who blinks first.

Austin spoke of ensuring that "guardrails" are in place to prevent situations that might "spiral out of control." That's a rather vague and generic statement, but it's at least a good starting point. Where we really need some guardrails, however, is the South China Sea, particularly when it comes to the Phillippines, as mentioned above. They have been engaged in multiple confrontations with Chinese naval vessels recently. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. addressed the conference last night and warned that if a Filipino sailor were to be killed during one of these confrontations, it would be “very, very close to what we define as an act of war," and his country would respond accordingly.

This complicates the American position because the United States is a treaty partner with the Phillippines. If China were to move toward open hostilities, we would be obligated to come to the aid of the Philippines. When asked what the American response would be if a Filipino sailor were to be killed, Austin declined to comment. He simply went back to stressing the need for open lines of communication and cooperation, while reiterating his view that our partnership with the Phillippines is "ironclad."

I believe that Lloyd Austin is doing the best he can with the hand that he's been dealt. But at the same time, I can't escape the feeling that Dong Jun came away from that meeting and called his boss to say, "I can't believe the Americans are this gullible." The last thing we need right now is a war with China given everything else that's boiling over around the world. And I'm confident that the Chinese don't really want a war with us. It would cost them too much, not just militarily, but in terms of economics and trade. But if they keep pushing the envelope in the South China Sea or, even worse, if they pull the trigger against Taiwan, it may prove unavoidable.