When it comes to the ongoing carnage in the Ukraine war and the need for some sort of diplomatic solution to the situation, who could have guessed that the calm, cool head in the room that many have been waiting for might turn out to be the Defense Minister of Italy? And yet it was Guido Crosetto who released a statement to the press today stating what has been obvious to many military analysts for some time now. He said that economic sanctions against Russia have failed to have the desired impact and Ukraine is not making any measurable progress in driving the Russians from the country. With that in mind, he called for a diplomatic solution that brings all parties to the table, working toward a truce initially and lasting peace in the long run. Italy currently holds the rotating seat of the presidency in the G7, so this might be seen as an ideal time for them to step up to the table. (Reuters)
Italy's Defence Minister said on Monday economic sanctions against Russia had failed and called on the West to try harder to negotiate a diplomatic solution with President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine.
Guido Crosetto told daily Il Messaggero that the West had wrongly believed its sanctions could stop Russia's aggression, but it had overestimated its economic influence in the world.
"Instead ... the only way to resolve this crisis is to involve everyone, first (to obtain) a truce and then peace," Crosetto said.
In answer to the interviewer's objection that Putin had shown no willingness to negotiate, Crosetto replied: "that is a good reason for us to try harder. We mustn't give up any possible path of diplomacy, however narrow."
Crosetto went on to claim that he had tried to warn Ukrainian President Zelensky more than a year ago that his planned counteroffensive would fail. However, he said that he "wasn't listened to." Given what a complete flop the counteroffensive turned out to be, perhaps the Defense Minister knows a thing or two, and the rest of the allies might consider listening to him at this point.
That's not to say that what Crosetto is proposing would be guaranteed to work or if it's even possible. There are obvious challenges, some of which were addressed during the press conference. It's true that Vladimir Putin hasn't so much as suggested that he might be open to peace talks. But then again, nobody seems to have made a serious effort at asking him about it. All he's heard from the United States (Ukraine's strongest partner and arms supplier) is "whatever it takes for as long as it takes."
He's heard the same thing from Zelensky repeatedly. The Ukrainians keep talking about absolute victory, even as they are being driven back and struggling to recruit troops. Meanwhile, Russia has taken very limited damage throughout all of this, though they have obviously lost a lot of soldiers. Putin hasn't been given much of an incentive to negotiate and the side that's winning traditionally is less motivated.
Look, I understand that nobody ever wants to blink first in a situation like this. Leaders always want to keep up the spirits of the folks back home and it's painful to concede that you might be losing. That's even more true when you are the wronged party who was unjustly invaded as Ukraine was. But it's hard to argue with Guido Crosetto when he says that these difficulties are all the more reason to try harder.
I will concede that it may be possible that the West has waited too long already. Ukraine would need to find something to put on the table that Putin doesn't believe he can eventually take by force given enough time. But then again he might see an acceptable path toward a truce if it is offered in the right way and by the right people. Putin is probably unlikely to listen to any direct offer from Zelensky at this point because Russia isn't afraid of Ukraine. They've made that obvious. But Putin is afraid of NATO, or at least significantly worried about the alliance. If he were approached by the leadership of NATO or the G7, he would probably at least listen.
But what sort of offer could be made? Putin will obviously want to keep some if not all of the land that Russia has taken. Going home empty-handed would be more than his ego could bear and might stir domestic resistance to him for having "failed." But, again, that's not much of an offer to make because the West would only be offering something he already has. But if NATO were to offer a signed statement from all of the allied countries promising that Ukraine will never be offered membership and that the captured eastern oblasts will be officially recognized as part of Russia, that might do the trick. The alternative at this point seems to be a decision to let the war grind on until Russian tanks are outside of Kyiv. And there would be little hope of negotiating anything at that point.
