Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is planning to announce his running mate tomorrow in his long-shot bid for the presidency. That's a normal part of the process that generally doesn't produce too much drama. But in the case of RFK Jr., it will probably turn into a potentially serious problem in the state of Nevada. He may not even be on the ballot. It's not because a group of "Never-Kennedy" activists are trying to knock him off like they're doing with Donald Trump. This is a case of his campaign not paying close enough attention to the filing rules. Kennedy has collected more than enough signatures to qualify, but they were all collected with only his name on the petition. State law says that the names of both candidates must be included, so his campaign may have to start over from scratch. (CBS News)
With Robert F. Kennedy Jr. set to unveil his running mate on Tuesday, an unforeseen hiccup has emerged in Nevada, complicating the long-shot independent's path to gaining ballot access in the Silver State.
Kennedy's vice presidential pick comes as he needs a running mate to qualify for the ballot in multiple states. And despite the campaign's announcement earlier this month celebrating amassing 15,000 signatures in Nevada, which exceeds what's needed to get on the ballot in November, the campaign could be forced to start its signature collection from scratch in the state because it failed to name a running mate when it filed Kennedy's petition, according to documents filed by Kennedy.
Nevada's presidential candidate's guide states that independent candidate petitions must include both the presidential and vice presidential candidates' names on the petition in order to be valid, the Nevada secretary of state's office confirmed.
The probably isn't as serious of a setback as it might first appear. The secretary of state's office confirmed that the first batch of petitions are invalid, but the petitions don't have to be submitted until August 7. They have to submit at least 15,000, but all campaigns collect far more than the minimum as insurance against the inevitable challenges they will face. They should have plenty of time to collect new ones, but that's time that could have been spent doing other things, so it still represents a setback.
RFK Jr. is hardly the first person to run afoul in this process. Having managed a couple of congressional campaigns over the years, I frequently remind people that the signature collection process is where many fledgling politicians run into a brick wall. Every state has its own requirements regarding signature collection, ranging from the number required to where and how they are collected and who is allowed to do the collecting. It's very easy to go astray in the process if you don't have an experienced campaign manager organizing the effort.
Even assuming Kennedy makes it past this hurdle, it remains unclear what impact he will have on the general election. I highly doubt he believes he can actually win in November. The bigger question is who he hurts more as a "spoiler," assuming he does. I keep hearing analysts claiming that the polls suggest he takes votes away from both Biden and Trump, but that doesn't make a lot of sense. The vast majority of people willing to vote for Trump are looking for a conservative agenda and Kennedy has a long and storied history of being a liberal. Just raising questions about the COVID vaccines isn't going to be enough to turn many conservatives' heads.
Biden, on the other hand, is already drawing protest votes for "none of the above" in his own primary. Kennedy might be an attractive option for some of those voters. But all of this is based on hypothetical scenarios drawn from polls being taken months ahead of the election. When election day finally rolls around, how many of them will really be willing to waste their vote on a candidate that they know will lose? How many will do that if they realize that they are effectively adding one more vote to the major party candidate they really don't want to see in office, even if they don't care all that much for either of them?
But with all that said, if this election is as tight as many of us still expect it to be, RFK wouldn't need to draw all that many votes to have an impact. That could be particularly true in several of the swing states. In short, we're almost certainly not looking at another Ross Perot or Ralph Nader situation, but Kennedy could still wind up making 2024 a more interesting race, at least for hardcore political trivia buffs.
