With the arrival of the first GOP presidential primary debate, we have reached the semi-official start of the primary process. (In reality, of course, this primary started moments after Joe Biden was sworn into office.) The absence of the runaway leader in the polls has rapidly become the focus of the event, probably more so than anything the rest of the candidates may or may not say on stage. But that awkward situation also seems to highlight how frantically some of the conservatives and Republicans who don’t want Donald Trump to be the nominee (and I’m not just talking about the traditional never-Trumpers here) are grappling with reality at this point, despite there still being nearly five months until the voting begins. And the actual never-Trumps are really in a tizzy, metaphorically wringing their hands and rending their sackcloth over how the wheels appear to be coming off the wagon. Take, for example, this bit of debate analysis from National Review.

There is a risk in advocating an affirmative strategy for the Republicans who are ostensibly seeking to engineer the historic polling collapse Trump will need to suffer if any of his competitors are to emerge victorious. Such strategies often don’t work, and no one wants to be held to account for a bad idea. But if the non-Trump candidates are actually running for the presidency rather than a spot in Trump’s next cabinet, they have to try to use whatever advantages are on hand. This Quinnipiac poll is evidence of a nascent fissure inside the GOP’s pro-Trump ranks that could be skillfully exploited.

That doesn’t mean a repeat of how Republicans navigated Trump’s absence from the debate stage in January 2016, when the field treated the frontrunner in the race as a distraction to be summarily dismissed. In that debate, Fox News opened by peppering the candidates with questions about Trump’s failure to attend. Senator Ted Cruz briefly mocked Trump’s penchant for issuing ad hominem insults before thanking Trump for the “enthusiasm” he brought to the race.

I’ll just start by reminding everyone that since I’m not a member of the Republican Party and can’t vote in the primary, I don’t technically have a horse in this race, despite still being extremely interested. I’m also aware that there are some former Trump supporters, including even some of my colleagues here on this site who no longer wish for Trump to be the nominee for various reasons. It’s everyone’s right to choose for themselves and that’s fine.

As for me, I have only one priority this time around. That would be the critical necessity to defeat Joe Biden or whichever of his lackeys winds up running next November. Biden has been nothing short of an abject disaster for the country on almost every score. And it has become increasingly obvious that he is likely the most corrupt figure to ever hold that office, leaving our great nation looking increasingly like a banana republic and a target of global scorn.

With all of that as a backdrop, I care less about the name of the person on the ballot representing the GOP than the outcome. If a non-Trump consensus candidate somehow arises (and don’t ask me how that happens because I don’t see it), I will happily cast my vote for whoever it is, just as I gladly sallied forth and voted for Trump during the previous two elections. And if Trump is the nominee, I shall do it a third time with no regrets.

But I would urge some caution to those who are now furiously paddling in the direction of DeSantis or Ramaswamy (both of whom are fine candidates who I could also easily support) or any of the others. Sometimes paddling too hard will result in the boat taking on water. Yes, there is still an eternity in “political time” until the primary voting begins, but the numbers rarely tell the magnitude of lies you would require to predict a Trump collapse at this point. He’s not just leading the field. He’s carrying an actual majority. If everyone else but DeSantis dropped out after the debate and all of their supporters went to the Florida Governor, Trump would still be leading.

I understand the concerns that some of my well-meaning friends here and elsewhere have expressed. They want to win next November also, and there is a significant amount of Trump hatred baked into a percentage of the electorate that is alarmingly above 40 percent. It’s going to be a tight election, no matter who is on the ballot or how awful conditions are around the country. But even if Donald Trump disappeared in a cloud of burning indictments tomorrow, the media and the establishment would simply turn their full fire and fury on the next GOP target. That would make him or her “the next Trump.” And some of them are already clearing the lanes to do just that if the opportunity arises.

And we should also keep in mind that Donald Trump has one important advantage (along with several supporting ones) that the rest of these people lack, along with Joe Biden. All the other candidates from Ron DeSantis to Nikki Haley to Tim Scott and the rest have some supporters. They have some donors. Perhaps a SuperPAC or two. And that’s great. But Donald Trump has a freaking army. And that army isn’t wavering one centimeter on the front lines. They are out there painting his image on their vehicles. They’re modifying their trucks to mount flags on them. They’re blasting Tom MacDonald songs out their windows at full volume. They show up in droves just to watch him get arrested. And on election day (and hopefully during early voting which we’re still terrible at) they will show up. Each and every one of them. They will show up if they have to be wheeled to the voting booth on a gurney.

Nobody is doing that for Joe Biden. Now look around at the rest of the field of aspirants for the GOP. Can you honestly see any of them driving that sort of a force? As I said, there are quite a few fine candidates who would likely do a good job. (Okay… maybe not so much Chris Christie.) But none of them have whatever magic Donald Trump has somehow unleashed. And if his army shows up in full and enough of the conservatives who might prefer a different choice do as well, along with a sufficient number of moderates who are willing to forgive and forget the mean tweets because of the awful shape the country is in today, we could still pull this off. And we desperately need to do that. I’ll stop preaching now. These are just a few observations I wanted to toss into the discussion while we wait for the debates.