One regional analyst who thinks he knows what the response from the West should be is Keir Giles who works with the Russia and Eurasia Programme of Chatham House, an international affairs think tank in the UK. In an op-ed that he published for CNN, Giles proclaims that Ukraine’s position has improved significantly. And rather than using this apparent moment of weakness for Putin as a reason to push for a cease-fire and a negotiated settlement, America and the rest of NATO should “double down” and arm Ukraine to the teeth so they can achieve “victory.”

Both President Vladimir Putin, and Russia itself, have been shown to be far weaker than they would like to pretend to be. The sight of Wagner columns apparently being waved through on their way to Moscow, and calmly breezing in to occupy a key military headquarters while holding coffees, has exploded the idea that Putin has a firm and unchallenged grip on power throughout his own country.

And the ability of a group of armed insurrectionists to roam southern Russia unchallenged has highlighted the Russian state’s lack of capacity to deal with challenges beyond the front line of its war on Ukraine.

That doesn’t mean that the Ukrainian army could similarly roll up the highway to Moscow unopposed. But it does show that the Kremlin and its forces are divided and uncertain – and that success for Ukraine in the war may be more easily achievable than thought before Prigozhin showed up Russia’s vulnerability.

You can read the full analysis at the link, but that probably gives you the basic flavor. Giles is an unapologetic supporter of Ukraine and views the Russian government as one of the great threats to civilization. (Not an entirely unfair assessment, though I would argue China poses a greater threat.) His fear seems to be that people will use Russia’s apparent weakness at this moment to push for talks between the two nations and some sort of negotiated settlement where each side gives something in exchange for an enduring peace.

Giles states that any sort of negotiated settlement where Ukraine gives up anything or even adopts a position of neutrality would be “to hand Russia victory and reward Moscow for its aggression.” He suggests that this is a moment when the “collapse of Russian resistance held out by Ukraine’s more optimistic supporters could be closer than thought.” With that, the author reaches the demand to double down.

What the Wagner showdown demonstrates is that, instead, now is the time to redouble support to Ukraine. Now is the moment to make up for lost time and take advantage of the evident faltering within Moscow to achieve the convincing defeat of Russian aggression that is essential to – at least temporarily – remove the threat to Europe.

In addition to massively increasing military aid to Ukraine, Giles calls for the removal of all “artificial constraints” on what Ukraine is allowed to do with the weapons and ammunition we give them. This would include allowing them to conduct strikes inside of Russia with impunity.

I don’t believe I’ve ever seen a more hawkish analysis of this situation anywhere. While the author doesn’t use the word, he seems to be suggesting that Ukraine could be able to force Russia to surrender and withdraw from all current and former Ukrainian lands, likely being forced to pay reparations in the process.

Does this really sound like a realistic scenario to anyone? The Ukrainians have fought bravely, as I’ve freely admitted before. But the infrastructure of the country is mostly in ruins. They couldn’t even feed their own people or keep the power on (in the places where there is still power) without constant foreign support. Meanwhile, Russia has lost a vast number of troops, but they’ve taken little to no damage inside their country and they are constantly conscripting more fighters. Oh, and just in case you’ve forgotten, they have the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world. And they are led by a madman who would almost certainly use them if he felt the walls closing in.

This madness has to be discouraged. The insurrection over the weekend may indeed push open the door to potential peace talks, but both sides have to be ready to come to the table. Arguing for a full “defeat” of Russia is probably a popular pastime inside the Pentagon, but we need sanity right now. The Russian bear was scuffed up a bit this weekend, but it’s not dead and really not all that seriously wounded. Keep in mind what happens if you push a bear into a corner. It won’t be pretty.