It’s possible that the long-rumored Ukrainian spring counteroffensive (even though it’s almost summer) may be heading into unexpected regions. We already knew that some drones have struck Moscow, though Zelensky’s government insists they weren’t responsible and the attacks may have been carried out by Ukrainian sympathizers inside of Russia. But now, multiple media outlets are reporting that some NATO weapons from Belgium may have turned up at the scene of some fighting inside of Russia’s Belgorod region. This has prompted the Belgian government to launch an investigation, saying that the use of their weapons inside the borders of the Russian Federation would be a violation of a “very strict rule” by Ukraine. (AP)

Belgium is investigating whether weapons it sent to help Ukraine defend its territory were used in fighting just over the border following a news report that said equipment produced by a Belgian company turned up around Russia’s Belgorod region.

Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo warned Monday against jumping to any hasty conclusions since shipments over decades and different regions can make arms turn up in unexpected places.

“Defense and information services started a probe to be absolutely sure what happened there,” De Croo told Belgian broadcaster VRT.

There are two elements to this story that make it a classic case of contradictions. On the one hand, Russia is obviously the guilty party in all of this. Yes, there are arguments to be made that NATO provoked Russia over a period of years by violating previous agreements regarding expanding the alliance’s borders to the east and “encircling” the Russian Federation. But they were still the country that launched a military invasion of Ukraine, originally seeking to take the country’s capital. Complaining about the Ukrainians hitting any of their territory in the middle of a war is absurd.

But at the same time, the Belgians are making a valid point with this investigation. Vladimir Putin has made it clear from the beginning that any direct attacks on Russia by any NATO allies would be a “red line” and could result in a severe escalation of the war beyond its current boundaries. While it would still not be justified, the use of Belgian weapons in Belgorod might be viewed as just such a “direct” attack.

For their part, the Belgians are bringing up a very good point as well. Even if some of the weapons found in Belgorod turn out to be of Ukrainian origin, that doesn’t really prove anything unless they can track down serial numbers or related data. Many countries, including Belgium (and the United States for that matter) have been dealing arms all over that region for many decades. Some are lost while others are stolen, eventually showing up on the black market. That could be the origin story of the weapons currently under discussion. For that matter, the Russians may have been using Belgian weapons in Belgorod.

No matter where the weapons originated or when they showed up in Russian territory, Putin will no doubt use this as another justification for further hostility and accusations against the West. I’m less worried at this point that he will literally go nuclear and begin attacking European or American targets because Russia no longer has enough of an army to defend itself against a Western land invasion and we could nuke them out of existence in return. But Putin will almost certainly cite this incident as further justification for not coming to the bargaining table.

In other news, a major dam in southern Ukraine located on the Dnipro River near Kherson partially collapsed today. Flooding has already reached the city and some surrounding areas. Ukraine and some NATO allies are accusing Russia of a war crime because blowing up dams is forbidden by the Geneva Conventions. This is a significant concern because that reservoir is the primary source of water for the cooling systems in Ukraine’s largest nuclear reactor. Russia is insisting that they didn’t do it and the Ukrainians blew it up themselves as “a distraction.” Others are speculating that the dam simply collapsed on its own due to a lack of regular maintenance during the war. An investigation is ongoing.