Were the leaked Ukraine documents real, fake, or a mix of both?

AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda

There was some considerable buzz on social media this weekend regarding a set of allegedly leaked government documents revealing details about military aid to Ukraine and the current and future prospects for the war going forward. The documents appeared to show where various assets from the United States and other NATO nations were being directed, along with casualty figures and other details that Washington doesn’t typically share with the public. The problem is that nobody seems to be claiming ownership of the documents and they may turn out to either be fake or at least altered in some fashion. Some suspect the documents may be more “Russian disinformation,” but the Pentagon isn’t saying anything other than that they are “looking into” the reports. Or at least that’s one version of the story. as described by the Associated Press. Other reports find the information more credible and suggest the documents may be authentic and damning in some regards.

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The Defense Department is reviewing a handful of documents that were released on several social media sites and appear to detail U.S. and NATO aid to Ukraine, but may have been altered or used as part of a misinformation campaign.

The documents, which were posted on sites such as Twitter, are labeled secret and resemble routine updates that the U.S. military’s Joint Staff would produce daily but not distribute publicly. They are dated ranging from Feb. 23 to March 1, and provide what appears to be details on the progress of weapons and equipment going into Ukraine with more precise timelines and amounts than the U.S. generally provides publicly.

The apparent errors in the documents, intentional or otherwise, seem to paint a picture that looks a bit better for Russia than the daily updates we typically receive. For example, it lists the estimates of Russian casualties as being significantly lower than those that are typically reported. That seems to suggest that Moscow may indeed be behind this. One Defense Department official speaking on background said that the information isn’t particularly damaging because most of the figures deal with information the Russians would already have available to them.

But as I said, not all news outlets are taking that angle. The latest analysis from CNN suggests that the documents are at least partly authentic and they contain some embarrassing information. That includes the extent to which the United States spies on its own allies.

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Some of the documents, which US officials say are authentic, expose the extent of US eavesdropping on key allies, including South Korea, Israel and Ukraine.

Others reveal the degree to which the US has penetrated the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Russian mercenary organization Wagner Group, largely through intercepted communications and human sources, which could now be cut off or put in danger.

The information about all of the espionage going on won’t surprise many people. The reality is that everyone spies on everyone else. We’ve caught Israeli spies right in the United States in the past. But such information could prove harmful if it reveals methods and sources being used in other countries.

More interesting is the claim from the documents that describe “weaknesses in Ukrainian weaponry, air defense, and battalion sizes and readiness.” The Russians are likely well aware of what the Ukrainian military situation is, but those figures contradict the more cheerful claims that are put out on a regular basis suggesting that Ukraine is kicking Russia’s backside.

By Sunday night, a Pentagon deputy press secretary was saying that an investigative effort was underway to determine the scope of the damage that may have been caused by the leak. They also said that initial reports have already been forwarded to “relevant congressional committees.”

But that still doesn’t answer the most basic questions. If some or all of these documents are legitimate, who let them out into the wild and who were the first recipients? Is someone inside the Pentagon trying to undermine public support for America’s continued funneling of money and arms into Ukraine? Or, alternately, are they trying to make the situation appear more dire in an effort to spend even more? It doesn’t appear that we’re going to find out anytime soon.

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