As predicted, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy met with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen yesterday. China had already threatened unspecified “countermeasures” if the meeting took place, calling it an unnecessary “provocation.” We still don’t know what the supposed countermeasures are going to be, but Beijing repeated its threats of “forceful” measures after the meeting. A spokesperson for the Chinese Communist Party described the meeting as an indication that the United States is on a “wrong and dangerous road.” In the past, these threats have resulted in little more than some additional military drills and flights near Taiwan’s airspace and coastal waters. But in the current international climate, it’s possible that they have something else in mind. (Associated Press)

China vowed reprisals against Taiwan Thursday after a meeting between the U.S. House Speaker and the island’s President, saying the U.S. was on a “wrong and dangerous road.”

Speaker Kevin McCarthy hosted Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen on Wednesday in a show of U.S. support for the self-ruled island, which China claims as its own, along with a bi-partisan delegation of more than a dozen U.S. lawmakers.

The Biden administration has said there is nothing provocative about the visit by Tsai, which is the latest of a half-dozen to the U.S. Yet, it comes as as the U.S.-China relationship has fallen to historic lows, with U.S. support for Taiwan becoming one of the main points of difference between the two powers.

China is claiming that the meeting with McCarthy represents an “escalation” in the tensions between our two countries, but that’s a rather thin claim to make. Nancy Pelosi met with Ing-wen while she was Speaker, as have others before her. The only difference being pointed out by Beijing is that the meeting took place on U.S. soil rather than in Taiwan. There were no new treaties signed or any sort of formal declaration of ties or alliances. It was a diplomatic courtesy call with a foreign elected official.

Chinese naval vessels are currently engaged in what’s being described as a “joint patrol and inspection operation” in the Taiwan Strait. But that was already announced well ahead of the meeting. No other unusual Chinese military activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. So perhaps this is just the usual bluster from the CCP that we’ve grown used to over the past decade or more.

But what if it’s not? Xi Jinping has been on a roll since he secured an unprecedented third term as President and he never stops carping about China’s “territorial integrity.” He has built a significant part of his career on promises to “reintegrate” Taiwan with the mainland. It’s not impossible that he’s feeling some pressure to actually do something about it. And we already know that China isn’t all that worried about an American military response, particularly considering our activities in Ukraine and our depleted military supplies. We’ll be testing that theory immediately because another delegation of eight members of Congress led by House Foreign Affairs Committee head Michael McCaul of Texas is leaving today for a three-day trip to Taiwan.

Do we need someone else to step in and address the situation? French President Emmanuel Macron seems to think he might be the right man for the job. He’s in China right now on a three-day trip to meet with Xi Jinping. But he seems to be more interested in talking to the Chinese about Ukraine than Taiwan. (Boston Globe)

President Emmanuel Macron of France, speaking at the start of a three-day visit to China, said Wednesday that Beijing could play a “major role” in bringing peace to Ukraine and made clear that he would urge the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, to get deeply involved in this effort.

His aim over meetings Thursday and Friday with Xi was to “relaunch a strategic and global partnership with China” and so engage the country in a “shared responsibility for peace and international stability,” Macron said.

I’m not going to fault the guy for trying, but Xi Jinping doesn’t currently appear to be terribly interested in “peace and international stability.” China is drawing closer and closer to providing lethal aid to Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. In fact, they may have already started. One reported investigation claims that a shipment of thousands of what were listed as “hunting rifles” to Moscow from Beijing was actually a load of assault rifles. And the associated ammunition could be used interchangeably in either. Other shipments have included “dual-use” equipment including drone parts and body armor. It will be interesting to hear if Macron brings any of these subjects up during this week’s meetings. I somehow doubt it will happen, though.