The city of Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province in China was, as I’m sure everyone knows by now, ground zero for the coronavirus pandemic. It was the site of the now-infamous “wet markets” where bats and other exotic animals were sold as fancy food products and was very likely the spot where the virus initially made the jump from animals to humans. It was also where the original, massive cluster of original deaths from the COVID-19 took place.

But now, with there having allegedly been no new deaths in the past week (assuming you can believe anything that the Chinese Communist Party says), China plans to lift the lockdown and allow the citizens of most of Hubei province to get back to work and other normal aspects of life. The lockdown in Wuhan itself is expected to similarly be lifted in two weeks. This is either a very hopeful sign for everyone else or the beginning of another round of horror show headlines. (Associated Press)

Chinese authorities announced Tuesday they would end a two-month lockdown of most of virus-hit Hubei province at midnight.

People with a clean bill of health will be allowed to leave, the provincial government said. The city of Wuhan, where the outbreak started in late December, will remain locked down until April 8.

China barred people from leaving or entering Wuhan starting Jan. 23 in a surprise middle-of-the-night announcement and expanded it to most of the province in succeeding days. Train service and flights were cancelled and checkpoints set up on roads into the central province.

Based on all the warnings we’ve been receiving from the CDC and other medical authorities, we’re about to see one of two things happen. Either the resumption of normal activities will open the door to a fresh outbreak of infections and deaths or the remaining population of the province will have “defeated” the epidemic and will now be able to mostly get on with their lives. In the latter case, there will probably be a few more cases to deal with, but by and large, they should be able to handle it.

If the disease comes roaring back, that’s pretty much all she wrote. That would indicate that the virus is simply too pervasive and persistent to get rid of anywhere else in a reasonable amount of time by simply “flattening the curve.” We’ll have to stay locked down for a period of time that may be too long to keep the economy on life support.

But at this point, Wuhan might just make it out of this. There were so many people infected in such a short period of time (before anyone realized they needed a lockdown) that a large portion of the population probably had the disease and survived. This could leave the citizens of the province with such strong herd immunity among the survivors that they’ll be okay. Even if newly infected people come into the region, the natural immunity developed by those who lived through it should protect them.

This experiment should have implications for what we do next in the United States. President Trump still seems to think we’re going back to work in a couple of weeks. But we’re in a very different situation than the people of Hubei province. They paid one hell of a toll before emerging from that long, dark tunnel of pandemic calamity. The number of people who died was staggering and their hospitals were overwhelmed.

While I intend no disrespect or lack of sympathy for those affected here in the United States, we haven’t paid that kind of toll. At least not yet. Travel bans combined with sweeping orders to remain at home have kept the number of people testing positive relatively low and confined to a few major centers of infection. The rest of us never developed that herd immunity that Wuhan will be relying on. (Assuming it’s enough, which remains to be seen.)

If we just wait two weeks and then go about our normal business, how could the number of infections (and deaths) not start shooting up again? We need a medical breakthrough in the form of either a working vaccine or an effective antiviral drug before things get back to anything approaching “normal,” don’t we?