The next step on the long, bloody trail toward the Democratic National Convention is upon us, this time in Nevada. We’ve been promised by the organizers of these caucuses that the debacle in Iowa will not be repeated. One of their precinct captains was on CNN this morning saying that everyone involved had been “trained, retrained and probably overtrained.” And they’re not going to use the craptastic phone app that blew up in Iowa. So it should be smooth sailing from here, right?
At some point later today or this evening we should know how accurate the polling was during this cycle. (I know… I’m such an optimist.) The problem is that there was so little polling done in Iowa during the final stretch that it could be rather hit or miss. The RCP average is really only pulling from two polls taken this month, and one of them looked a bit suspicious. For whatever it’s worth, they have Bernie holding a solid and substantial lead with an average of 32.5. That’s up massively from how he was doing as recently as mid-January when he was registering in the mid-teens.
Biden and Buttigieg are tied at 16% for second place and Elizabeth Warren is within the margins for fourth at 14%. That’s a big jump for Mayor Pete from where he was a few months ago and a large drop for both Uncle Joe and Warren. The problem is that Buttigieg’s climb, while rapid, seemed to stall out entirely after Iowa and New Hampshire, and in fact, he’s lost a few points. Unless these polls are all massively wrong, Bernie Sanders has conquered Nevada and should leave town with another nice chunk of delegates.
So is that it? If Bernie scores a big win then it’s all over? Not hardly. As we’ve discussed here previously, Super Tuesday is where the first major cascade of delegates will be handed out and a lot of those races are looking very close at the moment. Nobody should be counting their chickens at this point and I’m still not entirely eliminating the possibility of a brokered convention.
With all of that said, here are the widgets that will track the results as they become available. Please note that the first alignment reporting may not be updating enough to be useful, but the final alignment and delegate allocation results should work just fine since I’m sure that Nevada Democrats would never do anything to cause us to experience any “irregularities.” We’ll probably add in some updates later on the off chance that they actually manage to count a reasonable percentage of the votes in an orderly fashion.
UPDATE: (Jazz) The media is calling it early. Bernie is rolling on.
Sen. Bernie Sanders will win the Nevada caucuses, Fox News can project, furthering the democratic socialist’s lead over his Democratic rivals and raising the question as to whether he can be stopped on his path to the Democratic nomination.
With four percent of delegates in, Sanders has 56 percent.
According to the early returns, former Vice President Joe Biden is in second place with 19.9 percent, billionaire Tom Steyer has 9.3 percent, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., has eight percent, and former South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg has 5.8 percent. Ultimately 36 delegates are at stake.
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