Could AOC be "one and done" next year?

When Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez beat Joe Crowley in the 2018 primary for New York’s 14th District seat, I assumed that was pretty much the end of the story. There’s no need to mention the general election race since she was running against a placeholder Republican candidate who didn’t even campaign. Viewing the landscape there, I predicted that AOC would likely be holding that seat for as long as she wanted it. After all, the 14th has a Cook rating of D+29. There are literally six Democrats for every Republican in that stretch of turf. The woman who managed to knock Crowley from his throne was seemingly destined to keep it in perpetuity if she wished.

Might I have spoken too soon? We’re not seeing any surge in Republican registration in that district, but some recent polling suggests that even the Democratic voters there might be experiencing some buyer’s remorse. If a recent survey is to be believed, AOC is no longer well-liked, trusted or wanted by her own base back home. (Washington Examiner)

She’s a star on the national political stage, but Democratic New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is viewed skeptically back in her Queens and Bronx 14th Congressional District, according to a new door-to-door survey.

It found that she has a low 21% favorability rating, that just 11% believe she has their best interests in mind, and that only 13% would vote to reelect her.

The survey of registered voters was conducted by the political action committee targeting her with a Federal Election Commission complaint, Stop The AOC PAC.

That last line is the one to keep an eye on here. This wasn’t a typical poll put in the field by any of the reputable polling firms. This was a “door-to-door” survey conducted by a political action committee that is specifically targeting her for ouster. That doesn’t automatically mean that their data is flawed, rigged or what have you, but I’d feel a lot more confident if Siena or a Q poll tested the waters for us.

The last time Siena ran the numbers was on April 10th, more than two months ago. Back then she was above water with a 52-33 favorability rating and still had 61 percent of Democrats willing to support her in 2020. Of course, those numbers were well down from the lofty approval rating she had at the time of the election. Most voters who disapproved cited her fighting with Amazon (and the company’s subsequent decision to pull out) as their reason for no longer supporting her.

Is it possible that the ongoing failure to lure Amazon back has continued to drag AOC down? That would have to be a major shift to reach the numbers in this most recent survey. They found that 51% have an unfavorable view of her, 33% plan to vote against her, and just 13% would vote for her next year. That would be staggering indeed.

Of course, the 14th still isn’t ready to elect a Republican. (The only time that’s happened in the last century was in 1946.) If AOC is to be replaced, it would have to be another Democrat pulling the same tactic she used to succeed. She’d need to be knocked out in the primary. Perhaps Crowley might be tempted to come back and take a run at her when he’s actually paying attention to the campaign. Or some other young Democrat might step forward with a little less baggage and a better attitude toward Amazon. I hear Cynthia Nixon isn’t too busy these days. Perhaps somebody could give her a call?