Warren: I'm not running. Okay... maybe I am

Remember when people were trying to pin down Elizabeth Warren as to whether or not she’d serve a full term in the Senate if re-elected? As I wrote at the time, she stole the same routine from the playbook of Hillary Clinton circa 2006 and every other elected official considering a bid for the White House. She was just “focusing on her Senate race” and “had no plans at that time” for anything else.

It seems that Warren’s lukewarm lead in the polls (she’s only sitting at 56% as the incumbent is a very blue state) has convinced her of what was obvious from the beginning. With the primary safely behind her, the Senator knows that people don’t really give a fig about whether she plans to finish or not. She’ll still win another term. And with that information in her pocket, she came out this weekend and admitted that she’s looking at a presidential run and will be making up her mind in the near future. (Boston Globe)

Senator Elizabeth Warren on Saturday made her most definitive indication to date that she is mulling a run for the White House in 2020, telling a town hall crowd that she will take a “hard look at running for president” after the Nov. 6 midterm elections.

Until now, Warren has responded to questions about her presidential ambitions by insisting she is focused on winning reelection to the Senate in November. On Saturday, she linked her potential interest in the nation’s highest office to the damage she sees President Trump doing to the country and, more recently, to how Republicans have handled the sexual assault accusations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

When a town hall attendee asked her if she planned to run for the White House, Warren started her answer by saying she felt it is vitally important that Democrats not lose focus on the upcoming midterm elections and on winning back majorities in the House and Senate.

It’s not as if we didn’t already know this but there are a couple of points to make here. First of all, recent polling shows that voters in her own state aren’t really all that enthused about Warren running for President. The linked Boston Globe/ Suffolk survey reveals that as recently as ten days ago, 57% of Massachusetts voters didn’t think it was a good idea for her to run. Only 32% thought she should. That doesn’t mean she won’t still carry the state in 2020 if she’s the nominee, but it does speak to the tepid support she’s able to generate even on her home turf.

Also, this news has to bring at least a little cheer to Trump supporters looking ahead to his re-election bid. The reason is that Warren has proven over and over again that she’s just not a very good candidate. She’s always come across as cold and distant, failing to master basic concepts like being aware of her home-state sports teams or where and how to reach out to people. In her Senate race against Scott Brown in 2012, she only managed to pull in 53% of the vote… in Massachusetts. To repurpose an old Karl Rove saying, you should be able to run a canned ham in Massachusetts and get more than 53% as long as you brand it as a Democrat.

She’s also a terrible debater, based on the few times I’ve seen her at the lectern. Donald Trump will be facing some serious headwinds in 2020, but if there are any Democrats out there he can beat, I’d imagine Warren is near the top of the list. So with all that in mind… Run Warren Run.