Morning Consult: Public support for the AHCA is beginning to tank

The repeal and replacement of Obamacare is off to a rocky start to put it mildly. Between the OMB estimates of the cost and impact on the number of people with coverage (even if that remains in dispute) and the constant rumormongering surfacing in the press, even some who were previously supporting the idea seemed to be wavering. A new set of numbers coming from Morning Consult tells the story and the GOP seems to be setting themselves up with a tough row to hoe if this thing actually makes it to the president’s desk.

A strong plurality of voters think congressional Republicans are moving too quickly to overhaul the nation’s health care system, according to a new Morning Consult/POLITICO poll, which also shows that Obamacare is more popular than the GOP alternative.

With the House likely to vote Thursday on the GOP health care bill, 43 percent of registered voters think the GOP in Congress should slow down in replacing the Affordable Care Act. Just 17 percent of voters think Republicans, who aim to have the bill considered on the Senate floor next week, are moving at the right pace on health care.

Not even GOP voters are firmly behind the Republican timeline for replacing Obamacare. A third of Republicans think the replacement is moving through Congress at the right speed, while 28 percent want them to slow down. Twenty-four percent of GOP voters think congressional Republicans are moving too slowly.

Here’s the tale of the tape in graphic form. The direction of movement is pretty obvious.

They covered quite a few questions in the survey but only a couple of them really stand out to me. One of the first ones is the issue of how fast this package is being rushed through the process. The results are all over the place but there’s clearly a sizable group of voters who think that this is simply going too quickly. The number who “don’t know” how they feel about various aspects of the question no doubt ties into that. None of us really know enough about this bill yet.

Then there is the issue of how the AHCA will hit people where it counts, that being in the wallet. A plurality clearly believe that their costs are going to go up even more, with only one in five voters thinking that the GOP has figured out how to make their premiums go down. Would we expect anything different? They’ve been sold this bill of goods before when the original Obamacare legislation was pushed through and we all saw the results. Fool me once, shame on you etc.

It’s still not impossible that Paul Ryan can manage this heavy lift and get something to Donald Trump’s desk. But given the resistance which is already showing up in the Senate that’s looking less likely by the day. And perhaps that’s for the best. Obamacare has been a disaster, but at least it was a disaster entirely of the Democrats’ making. If this new scheme (which may wind up being known as Ryancare, Trumpcare or who even knows what) makes its way into law and the system either fails to improve or, God help us all, it gets worse, the Republicans are going to own this entire fiasco for years to come. We saw how well that worked out for the Democrats.