Morning Consult: Hillary gets her own post-convention bump

Last night, Allahpundit covered a somewhat sketchy looking, online poll from RABA Research which had Hillary leading the race in a blowout. Those numbers are still suspect to say the least, but the first post-convention poll from Morning Consult indicates that Clinton may indeed be getting her own bounce from the Big Gig in Philadelphia.

Hillary Clinton is once again leading Donald Trump in the presidential race after her party’s Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.

The former secretary of State leads the brash businessman, 43 percent to 40 percent, in a new Morning Consult survey taken in the days following the DNC gathering. It’s a 7-point swing from the previous poll, in which Trump surged to a 4-point lead following the Republican National Committee’s convention in Cleveland.

Almost one in five voters (17 percent) remain undecided.


When you add Gary Johnson into the mix, Trump does even worse, with Hillary expanding her lead from three points to five, 41 to 36, and Johnson taking a rather impressive 11%. It remains to be seen if he’ll ever crack the 15% ceiling to get a chance at the debates in the fall.

This is the second poll in a row from the same outlet showing a seven point shift, though in opposite directions. Given the fact that we just finished the convention cycle you can expect a bit of a yo-yo effect, but that seems a bit much. To get a better sense of what’s going on we should probably once again look at the cross tabs and what’s happening with the demographic spread. You’ll recall that the last Morning Consult poll we looked at had a fairly compact breakdown of registered voters coming in at 33% Democrat, 35% Independent and 32% GOP. This time the spread has shifted again, with a sample composed of 36% Democrat, 34% Independent and 30% Republican. So the results are showing a net shift of 7% in Hillary’s favor, but there are three percent more Democrats, two percent fewer Republicans and one percent fewer independents. As the old saying goes… you do the math.

Still, I wouldn’t write it off entirely. Trump got a very noticable bounce out of his convention, and while the Democrats’ party may have been a bit more lackluster, it’s not unreasonable to think that Clinton would see some movement back in her direction in turn. There are other external factors as well. Trump has been getting pounded relentlessly in the media as usual, and for at least some voters that’s going to have a tendency to sink in. If I had to subtract out the differences in party affiliation and take into account the fact that these are registered voters versus likely voters, the most likely conclusion hasn’t changed much from the last survey. This race is essentially tied with neither major party candidate being close to a majority yet and an electorate which remains largely unsettled. If anyone tells you at this point that they can predict how this thing ends in November… they’re probably trying to sell you something.

hillary victory

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