I was waiting a while to comment on last night’s prime time debate because sometimes you really need a few hours to let things marinate in your mind. I watched most of it in bed rather than sitting up to live Tweet the affair and be bathed in the ongoing, second by second commentary. Ed’s analysis from the floor at Red State Gathering was pretty good in terms of how the various candidates performed and I don’t have much to add to that beyond a couple of comments. The performance by Kasich was overrated and seemed to be swayed by the big applause lines he received. I would note only that most of the audience was from Ohio. It was unfortunate that Ted Cruz seemed to fade into the wallpaper for most of the affair since I thought he would have a much bigger chance to break through. And from the early show, Carly Fiorina was the clear winner. But enough about that and on to the main event.

There were more than enough analysts weighing in by the time I woke up this morning who were ready to declare that Donald Trump was “the big loser” of the night. Liz Peek of Fox News (shocking, I know) stated this conclusion as fact and appeared particularly incensed that Trump had figuratively gotten in Megyn Kelly’s face several times. But in all fairness, when you strike at The Donald, he tends to swing back. By the time Morning Joe came on, there was a line of experts ready to predict that Trump was finally going to start going down in the polls, with the glaring exception of Mika Brzezinski (!) who thought it would help him.

I can approach this as an experienced observer of and commenter on the Trump 2016 phenomenon. I’ve been out in front of this story from day one and have consistently predicted how Trump’s various moves would play out with the public and the press.

And I have been wrong. Every… single… time.

Unfortunately for the rest of the field, I think our other 16 GOP candidates have been making the same mistake that I did and they are continuing to do it today in the aftermath of the debate. The main problem is that nobody in either the political class or the media saw Trump coming. That’s probably an unintentionally misleading statement because obviously there had been talk about his running for quite a while, so everyone knew it was a theoretical possibility. But when it happened, the rest of the field was caught flat footed by the fact that he actually announced. Yet that reaction doesn’t hold a candle to how gobsmacked each every one of them were when the billionaire immediately flew to the top of the charts.

Our collective problem here, I think, is that we’ve all been so used to playing from the same rulebook (and being able to exile those who break those rules) for so long that there was no antibody in our collective political bloodstream to fight off Trump once he arrived. It’s like setting up a chess board in the park, inviting The Donald to do battle, and moving your Pawn to King 4. Then Trump calmly walks over, picks up his bishop, sweeps past all the other pieces and knocks over your king.

“Wait!” you cry out. “You can’t do that!”

With that annoying smile on his face, Trump responds, “Clearly I just did” and walks away. And what makes the situation all the more insufferable is the crowd of tourists who had gathered around to watch and who are now pointing at you and laughing.

Returning to the point I originally set out to make, our candidates aren’t just flummoxed by how to gain traction and get ahead of Trump in the polls. They seem to be failing an even bigger test when the media inevitably comes to them and asks why Trump is doing so well. Many respond by saying that Trump is just a celebrity and we’re a nation of folks who are fascinated by celebrities. But he’s leading in polls of people who are both registered Republicans and likely voters. These are the most involved, informed voters in the nation. When you do this you’re basically telling your base that they are vacuous consumers of brain numbing TV pablum. That’s really no way to win over the base, folks.

Others respond by saying that Trump’s high profile just gives him a much higher name recognition. (Sorry, Carly.) But that’s just making excuses and whining when all is said and done. It’s your job to make your mark and get people to recognize and agree with you. It’s not Donald’s job to apologize for being famous.

In short… (and it’s taken me a while to come to this conclusion) you’re doing it wrong. The question isn’t what’s wrong with Trump. He’s winning. And the question darned sure shouldn’t be what’s wrong with the voters who respond to him positively. That’s a political suicide dive. The real question is and has always been, why aren’t you doing better?

Yes, Donald Trump said more things which seemed unfortunate during the debate. His previous comments about certain women which the moderators brought up were cringe inducing. His unwillingness to rule out a third party run or promise to endorse the eventual nominee were, according to the Pre-Trump Rule Book, disqualifying statements which should crush him. There were others, all of which were examples of exactly what you can’t do if you want to win an election and stay ahead in the polls.

So Trump is doomed, right?

Eugene Robinson was on Morning Joe in the first hour today and recounted how he had watched the debate at a nearby bar as a guest of the American Conservative Union. (Side note: he said he received a warm and cordial welcome there and enjoyed himself a great deal.) He told a very different tale than the one being portrayed on the other cable news outlets. Every time Trump let out one of the groan inducing comments which the experts are yet again predicting will doom him, Robinson said the room let out a collective cheer. That’s not much different from what Ed described happening at Red State Gathering.

I think more of the professional political class and the media analysts should have spent the evening having a few beers with Robinson and the folks from the ACU or at RSG15. Every time we see Donald Trump commit electoral seppuku, political undertakers rush with their shovels to his grave site. And then a week later a new set of numbers comes out and they glumly return to their posts, asking yet again how they got it so wrong. Perhaps this will be the time when they’re right… who knows? Maybe this debate was what it took for the voters to figure out “what’s wrong with Trump.”

As for me, I’ll give it a week or so. I’ve been burned once too often already and I suspect there are quite a few more chess boards out there waiting for Donald to knock them over.