Ukraine ceasefire "largely holding" so far... except where it's not

You may recall that when the upcoming ceasefire was announced between Ukraine and Russia last week I was somewhat skeptical to say the least. The motives for Putin in this international drama seemed fairly clear and the lack of an honest negotiating partner across the table from Ukraine left the entire proposition in doubt as far as I was concerned. But the proceedings moved forward, and after some big fireworks in the final hours the appointed time came and the guns fell silent. Well… most of them, anyway.

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It’s interesting that several of the headlines this weekend choose to highlight the fact that the agreement is “largely holding” in the east. Of course, when you see the word “largely” in play, that also means not entirely. And the place where it doesn’t seem to hold as much promise is right where the fighting was heaviest.

Ukraine’s rebels disavowed a new truce on Sunday hours after it took effect, saying it did not apply to the town where most fighting has taken place in recent weeks.

Guns fell abruptly silent at midnight across much of eastern Ukraine in line with the ceasefire agreement, reached after a week of diplomacy led by France and Germany. But pro-Russian rebels announced they would not observe the truce at Debaltseve, where Ukrainian army forces were encircled.

“Of course we can open fire (on Debaltseve). It is our territory,” senior rebel commander Eduard Basurin told Reuters. “The territory is internal: ours. And internal is internal. But along the line of confrontation there is no shooting.”

The phrase “no shooting” is probably up for debate. It is apparently true that the biggest, industrial scale weapons have largely gone cold for the time being, with at least significantly less shelling going on. But the small arms shooting continues in Debaltseve from street to street as is being reported by nearly all of the reporters who are somehow still managing to stay in the area to cover events on the ground.

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And as to the artillery, as hinted at above, all’s not entirely quiet on the eastern front as the sun goes down over there. The BBC has already found instances where the “internal matter” spoken of by Eduard Basurin above is still being managed with a heavy hand.

The organisation monitoring the situation in Eastern Ukraine says that the ceasefire is largely holding but there have been reports of artillery fire in areas including Debaltseve and Luhansk.

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s Michael Bociurkiw in Ukraine also told BBC News that that their teams had been denied access to some areas.

I don’t want to go all John McClane on you, but… I hate it when I’m right.

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