Closing arguments in Georgia: Perdue 48, Nunn 44

The clock is ticking in Georgia and it seems more and more that there is no last minute surge for Democrat Michelle Nunn. The Corner brings us the final NBC/Marist poll and the news for David Perdue is promising, if not definitive.

Two percentage points separate whether the Georgia Senate race will end on Tuesday or drag on in to January with a runoff, according to a new survey.

The final NBC News/Marist poll before Election Day shows Republican David Perdue at 48 percent among likely voters, making him within reach of the 50 percent of the vote needed to avoid a runoff. His Democratic opponent, Michelle Nunn, is at 44 percent. Four percent say they remain undecided in the closing days.

I’ve been burned too often to start getting comfortable with the idea that Marist has modeled the Georgia turnout that closely, particularly with the margin of error and the undecideds both essentially having the ability to negate the spread. But the tides have seemed to be running Perdue’s way late in the game, so there’s at least reason to be hopeful. As Andrew Johnson points out, though, all of this will be a bit anticlimactic for both candidates if neither of them makes it to 50% plus one vote threshold and we wind up in a runoff.

The same poll shows that, in the event of a runoff, the numbers don’t shift much. It’s Perdue on top 49-46 with 4% undecided. But even more so than a midterm showdown, turnout in a special election is notoriously low. Of course, if it turns out the other races break evenly and the GOP is sitting at 50 seats exactly, you will see a blizzard of money and advertising crashing down on Georgia like a Biblical plague. There may be an emerging market in electronics by January as residents begin screaming incoherently and throwing their televisions out of their windows.

In closing, viewers have noted that Perdue is getting in some pretty good shots in during the closing rounds of the fight. Here’s one of my favorites.